September 16th, 2017 · Comments Off on Trump might (MIGHT) not be leaving Paris Accords … Should we care?
The ‘breaking news’, according to an EU official and Wall Street Journal reporting, Donald Trump and @TeamTrump might act (yet again) in ways to piss off their #MAGA-frothing base. After announcing, in front of a sweating audience of fossil fools on the White House lawn, that the United States would be leaving the Paris Accords, Saturday’s breaking news is that this might not be the case.
The U.S. has stated that they will not renegotiate the Paris accord, but they will try to review the terms on which they could be engaged under this agreement
This is amid the first major international meeting on the Paris Accords since Trump’s June announcement.
White House senior adviser Everett Eissenstat unveiled the U.S. plan, according to an official at Saturday’s gathering, as Ottawa, Beijing and Brussels accelerate their joint effort to minimize the fallout from a potential U.S. withdrawal from the Paris agreement.
Putting aside the mercurial nature of Donald Trump’s gaslighting and the incertitude that anything Trump or anyone from Team Trump says will remain firm, a question that we should ask is ‘so what?’
As many are reporting ‘relief’ that Irma wasn’t as bad as it could have been (even while recognizing that some 20% of Floridians are without electricity, the devastation in the Caribbean, and untold damages throughout Florida), let’s consider Hurricane Irma’s Accomplishments (see after fold for fuller list) that include:
185 mph lifetime max winds – tied with Florida Keys (1935), Gilbert (1988) and Wilma (2005) for second strongest max winds of all time in Atlantic hurricane.
Allen had max winds of 190 mph in 1980 – 185 mph lifetime max winds –
the strongest storm to exist in the Atlantic Ocean outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico on record –
185 mph max winds for 37 hours – the longest any cyclone around the globe has maintained that intensity on record.
The previous record was Haiyan in the NW Pacific at 24 hours
914 mb lifetime minimum central pressure – lowest pressure by an Atlantic hurricane outside of the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico on record –
3.25 day lifetime as a Category 5 hurricane – tied with Cuba (1932) for longest lifetime as Category 5
3 consecutive days as a Category 5 hurricane – the longest in the satellite era (since 1966)
– 8.50 major hurricane days – the 2nd most in satellite era (since 1966)
Generated the most Accumulated Cyclone Energy by a tropical cyclone on record in the tropical Atlantic (7.5-20°N, 60-20°W)
Generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than the first eight named storms of the Atlantic hurricane season (Arlene-Harvey) combined
Generated enough Accumulated Cyclone Energy to satisfy NOAA ACE definition for an average Atlantic hurricane season
Generated more Accumulated Cyclone Energy than 18 entire Atlantic hurricane seasons in the satellite era (since 1966)
I'm astounded by Irma’s long list of “accomplishments”. What a hurricane! https://t.co/nDMtMMgjNf
Oregon, Washington State, Montana, Canadian, …. Forest Fires burning with smoke clouds crossing the nation …
Forest fire smoke is pushing south from Canada ?? Chicago's northern suburbs. Milky white areas circled are not clouds, but wildfire smoke. pic.twitter.com/jJixvFVYRI
September 8th, 2017 · Comments Off on The morning after Back-to-School: Six points to explain climate change
Like 10s of millions of American parents, the month of September brings back to school night. Writ large, mine last night was what you can hope for: with one exception, what appear to be good to excellent teachers; positive statements about ‘the kids’ and atmosphere; and some positive feedback about your child. Tensions issues related to school funding, concern about how the parents will have to backfill to cover one lousy teacher, and …. but, again, about as good as it gets. Thus, the mindset was ‘high school’ when seeing an OutPostUtopia (Michael Jenkins) tweet this morning sharing a six-step discussion re climate change and severe weather that provides the sort of clarity that any/all who m
A straightforward climate science explanation that any Middle Schooler should understand
anaged to not fail a high school physics class can/should understand.
The discussion to the side summarized:
Sequence of cause & effects:
The carbon-energy economy is increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide.
That increased carbon dioxide is causing atmosphere AND ocean warming (and ocean acidification) globally.
Global warming is driving Arctic sea loss, retreating glaciers, and sea-level rise (warmer => more volume + melting glaciers/Greenland/Antarctica).
Global warming/climate change does not necessarily cause weather events.
Global warming can augment (make more severe) weather events.
Augmented weather events, therefore,
can be a real expression of climate change because
global warming of the atmosphere and oceans has augmented them.
The above is a defensible discussion which lays out a logical case that any with a modicum of education and (critically) an open mind to science can understand and absorb.
September 7th, 2017 · Comments Off on Irma: considering the worst …
The damage reports are coming in from Caribbean islands and the warnings are mounting for the Continental United States: Hurricane Irma could drive up the entire Atlantic Coast of Florida, a category 5 hurricane strike on Miami and the homes/work places of millions of American citizens. Prior to the first rain drops hitting Miami, people are already bandying about that this could turn out (seen predictions of odds from 5-20%) as the most expensive (human-climate enhanced/driven) natural disaster in U.S. history — potentially on the order of $300 billion of direct impacts (without, for example, dealing with the financial impacts of the quite possible (likely) collapse of coastal real estate in Florida if not across the United States and even globally).
While some might (secretly and/or openly) celebrate that Donald “global warming is a Chinese Hoax” Trump’s Mar-A-Lago lies directly in the storm’s path, the catastrophic nature of the potential impacts are nothing to joke about.
See all that blue? Essentially all of southern Florida would be under water with 10 feet of sea-level rise (SLR). While SLR is far from a perfect surrogate for storm surge impacts (storm surges are generally geographically limited (not that whole region) and temporarily short, unlike SLR’s (on human scale) permanence), it provides a window for understanding just how far saltwater might reach if Irma’s impacts on Florida are as bad as some fear it could be.
Consider this, the National Weather Service is already warning of “possible devastating impacts across south Florida …” with “locations [potentially] uninhabitable for weeks or months”.
Holy hell, @NWSMiami: "Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months."
The bill is mounting — in human lives, in money, in stressing society, in … — and Irma could add a massive increase to the mounting bill.
Those fighting climate action, denying climate change reality, often argue that ‘we can’t afford’ to invest perhaps $100-$200B per year to mitigate climate risks (with huge returns outside reduced risk) while we see ever mounting costs accruing from climate-related disasters and challenges.
Just from current catastrophes,
Harvey: $150B-$250B+
California Fires/Heat Wave: Unknown
Oregon/Montana/Washington State Heat Waves/Fires: Unknown
Irma: Potentially over $300B.
And, of course, this is ‘just’ counting direct US catastrophic events — ignoring disastrous situations around the world
The bills are coming in from our failure(s) to #ActOnClimate. Those bills will continue to mount … even as the imperative to #ActOnClimate mounts. Action — whether clean energy, energy efficiency, land-use changes, and/or — is required and the only path we have to gain any prospect of controlling how large tomorrow’s climate bills will become.
==============
UPDATEs:
Storm surge risk
Storm Surge Warning. MOST VULNERABLE are places bordering Biscayne Bay & inland from there. 10 feet ABOVE GROUND! pic.twitter.com/Ooo9mPu8Cq
Whether purposeful or not, Donald Trump manages to provide stunning, jaw-dropping moments and actions at a pace impossible for a reasonable person to track while attempting to maintain anything close to a normal life. Amid outrageous actions (like against the Dreamers & DACA), immoral and despicable commentary (such as emphasizing those “very fine people” who marched under Nazi flags in Charlottesville), criminal actions (Emoluments Clause, anyone), outrageous twitter distractions (commentary against media), etc, etc, etc, there are many items that can fly by without notice.
Bill Mckibben, in a tweet last night, sought to shine a spotlight on this the incredible (probably unconscious) disconnect:
1) Irma at 190 mph 2) Harvey at 54 " of rain 3) West ablaze 4) Record California heat 5) Donald Trump talking at an oil refinery pic.twitter.com/MxQylFbzVQ
While a rational and competent President, who put the interests of the nation and Americans above his own self-interest and self-absorption, would be focused on monitoring these disastrous situations across the nation and assuring the most effective Federal response to assistance to save lives and speed recovery, Trump is off promoting tax concepts that would (further) enrich the richest of society at the expense of everyone else (both today’s and tomorrow’s Americans).
When the science is (and has been for decades) eminently clear and incredible strong linking the burning of fossil fuels with climate change AND that human-driven (fossil-fueled) climate change creates circumstances for catastrophes and worsens them, the climate-science denying (“Chinese Hoax) “narcissistic maniac” occupying the White House is off promoting fossil foolish intensification of our use of oil, natural gas, and coal: e.g., Team Trump is working hard(est?) to foster conditions for even more and even worse climate catastrophes in the coming years and decades.
That rational and competent President, as well, would be asking the question:
(how) Can we reduce the risks of such catastrophes?
Drive toward a lower carbon (negative emissions) economy at an accelerated pace.
Adopt policies that foster better land use and agricultural practices (that lower carbon impacts, reduced methane emissions, etc …)
And …
(how) Can we reduce the impacts of future natural disasters — recognizing that human-driven climate change creates conditions for new “unprecedented” events and severity events for decades to come (even with the most aggressive efforts to act on climate)?
Learn lessons and create resiliency in our society (built environment and otherwise);
Invest so that mitigation, resiliency, and adaptation investments are optimized so that resiliency and adaptation investments, as much as possible, also contribute to climate change mitigation.
As Bill McKibben highlighted in yesterday’s stunning contrast between climate catastrophes and fossil-fuel promotion, as we are already aware in so many ways, Donald Trump is not that rational and competent President.
UPDATE: That contrast is even more stunning if you have the strength to listen to Trump’s speech.
Trump is bragging about pulling out of the Paris Climate Agreement in the middle of a climate disaster: https://t.co/uovE4Pxyi4
bedbug infestations have spread over time in the Michigan city —which has grappled with lead-contaminated drinking water since 2014 — and the center’s past sessions attracted packed audiences. “People really do need this,” she said. “For low-income communities, it’s a really desperate situation.”
Just $20k, who cares … and, well, so what …?
John Konkus reviews every award the agency gives out, along with every grant solicitation before it is issued. According to both career and political employees, Konkus has told staff that he is on the lookout for “the double C-word” — climate change — and repeatedly has instructed grant officers to eliminate references to the subject in solicitations.
Who is this Konkus? The Deputy Associate Administrator for Public Affairs at EPA with a career of Republican political (including lots with Trump’s presidential campaign) and administrative work. As to his academic background to be reviewing literally $billions of EPA grants? A BA in political science from the University of Maryland.
“The double c word” is clearly in the cross-hairs (though there is also research work being suppressed about impacts of mining, pesticides, … along with life-saving grants supporting, for example, deployment of clean stoves in developing nations) of eminent scientific authority Konkus.
At least some reacted, ‘well, she was awarded the grant, why bother to edit out the words’ (not asserting Weinstein is one of those) and that she shouldn’t do so because “this is what censorship looks like”—that she should simply ‘resist’ this odious recommendation.
With the news of Konkus’ focus on “the double C word”, it does look like the staff workers were seeking to protect Bowen’s (and others’) research from the Konkus political hack hacking. That email, in fact, might actually best be seen as ‘deep state’ efforts to protect substantive, valuable science funding from ‘the double C-word’ hack hacking.
“From sea to shining sea …” America the Beautiful tugs at the hearts of all patriots …
At this time, America the Beautiful is facing a painful reality of being flooded, scorched, and threatened from ‘sea to shining sea’ by climate catastrophes.
Houston is just starting to dry out from Hurricane Harvey’s 50 inch rain totals.
Something that all these events share … climate signals, signs (with scientific basis) that human-driven climate change is exacerbating the situation.
Climate catastrophes are happening not just From Sea to Shining Sea but across all the seas — massive flooding in South Asia (with thousands dead and millions displaced), mudslides in West Africa, drought in Italy and massive fires in Portugal, record low-levels of Arctic ice, melting Greenland, …
All too often, commentators will argue that “we must act now to avoid catastrophe …” Looking at flooded Houston and burning Los Angeles, it is far past time to face reality: we are already in catastrophe and feeling catastrophic impacts. (Consider what you might have thought would be ‘catastrophe’ in terms of climate impacts decades ago ..) Across the globe, human-driven climate change (AGW) is exacerbating, accelerating, worsening, amplifying weather events to make hard situations into horrible. And, the situation will get worse — no matter what — due to latent impacts (the time delay) from the pollution we’ve already pumped into the atmosphere.
What we — humanity — does have is a choice to act to reduce just how catastrophic those events and the future situation(s) will be, to reduce the risks of total calamity for human society.
Even as the occupant of the Oval Office declares climate change a “Chinese Hoax” and fills the US government with climate science deniers, reality is reality …
September 2nd, 2017 · Comments Off on For @NASA, @RealDonaldTrump proposes #climate #science denier
In another Friday dump, Team Trump’s choice for NASA:Representative Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK), a true climate zombie. Here is material from his statement that called on President Obama to cut climate science funding to move it to weather research.
Global temperature changes, when they exist, correlate with Sun output and ocean cycles.
Okay, I’m lazy. I’ll stick with Skeptical Science and climate science denial by the numbers. This is filled with multiple misnomers and misleading games.. First, while there are throughout geologic history, portions of the temperature records that “correlate with Sun output and ocean cycles”, this is a path toward misleading: no climate scientist asserts that natural change and natural cycles don’t exist, we are concerned about humanity’s ‘thumb’ on the scale. Right now, as we are seeing ever hotter global temperatures, Bridenstine’s ‘it’s the sun’ (Denialist item #3) is simply false as “the sun’s energy has decreased since the 1980s but the Earth keeps warming fasterthan before.”
During the Medieval Warm Period from 800 to 1300 A.D.—long before cars, power plants, or the Industrial Revolution—temperatures were warmer than today.
During the Little Ice Age from 1300 to 1900 A.D., temperatures were cooler.
Sigh, #47. “The main drivers of the Little Ice Age cooling were decreased solar activity and increased volcanic activity. These factors cannot account for the global warming observed over the past 50-100 years. Furthermore, it is physically incorrect to state that the planet is simply “recovering” from the Little Ice Age.”
Neither of these periods were caused by any human activity
Okay, not going to address that because this is sort of misdirection since the points he is referring to are falsehoods. However, something to consider, there is scientific work (papers, studies) suggesting human impacts on the climate going back 10,000 years or more. (Not expert at this, but here is somewhere to start.)
If you’re visual and just ach to see Bridenstine’s climate science denial in action,
Scenes of the Cajun Navy, CNN rescues, Waffle House and other businesses acting decently to great, and basic human decency (even heroism) seem to dominate ‘the’ story as to helping Houstonians amid and after Hurricane Harvey’s (still probably inconceivable for all of us who were under its) 50 inches of rain.
As emergency services are overwhelmed in Houston, the #CajunNavy is bringing their boats to Texas.
Despite this compelling (and meaningful) stories, a basic truth is that major institutions bear the major brunt and role both in preparing for and dealing with disaster situations. Amid the serious (and often valid) discussions of how Houston’s free-wheeling land development and Texas political elite’s climate-science denial’s damaging of efforts to reduce vulnerabilities, there are ways in which parts of Houston showed real learning and invested (often with meaningful Federal (both Bush and Obama Administration) support to be better prepared to face climate-driven/enhanced catastrophes like Hurricane Harvey. Houston’s hospitals and medical system might prove to be the strongest example of how learning from expert analysis (of disasters and risks) and investments based on that learning help society better deal with climate impacts.
Upfront: Before jumping into the discussion of Houston’s hospitals, some basic truth:
Changing climate might (MIGHT) have fostered conditions for rapid intensification and stalling over Houston
Investing in mitigation (reduce future human impacts on climate) is preferred over adaptation
Though both are necessary — climate is changing and adaptation investments are required even as (much) more should go to mitigation
David Roberts’ discussion has this core point: “Mitigation has local costs and egalitarian global benefits; adaptation has local costs and inequitable local benefits.”
Writ large, Hurricane Harvey’s impacts on Houston show that the city (and, writ large, society) is neither making adequate mitigation nor adequate adaptation investments.
Houston has been paving itself ever more with each passing year, making the city more vulnerable to floods.
Even with news of chemical plant explosions, some news from Houston shows that climate adaptation investments can work and enable resiliency in the face of climate-intensified disasters. Example #1: Houston’s medical system.
Previous storm weather events created havoc in Houston’s medical services.
Houston’s medical complex … was swamped by Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. That storm caused a blackout, inundated medical center streets with up to 9 feet of water, and forced evacuations of patients, some airlifted from rooftops by helicopter. Damage totaled more than $2 billion.
Consider that damage figure. That is, roughly, one percent of the damage totals being bandied about for Hurricane Harvey’s impacts. (Today, saw estimate of $150B — have to think that this will increase — though perhaps that is solely Federal aid request level.)
Houston’s hospitals and the overall medical system didn’t, however, simply cash disaster-relief checks for $2B (and boost bonuses) but did what good medical professionals do: they considered what had happened, sought to learn lessons, and took action based on recommendations from those evaluations.
After a review of the area’s flood weaknesses, member hospitals moved their electrical vaults and backup generators out of basements to areas above flood level. Scores of existing buildings were fitted with flood gates, and new buildings were built surrounded by berms. Underground tunnels were outfitted with 100 submarine doors, some 12 feet tall. The $756 million bill was paid by the Federal Emergency Management Agency; millions more were spent on the public works projects.
Disruptive as such changes have been, doctors, health-care administrators, and the leaders of the regional network say Houston’s vaunted web of hospitals has generally come through the storm in far better condition than during the last massive rains to deliver a direct hit.
During Allison, “Memorial Hermann, for one, had no power because its basement-level generator had been flooded, and staff members were working by flashlight and ventilating patients by hand.The pills in hospital pharmacies were wet and ruined. Medical equipment shorted out. The medical center’s research laboratories suffered $2 million in losses.” And, even months later, the hospital warned the community
“Drink milk, not booze, on this Fourth of July weekend, because if you get into a wreck or get in a fight, we have no way to take care of you.”
During the ongoing massive flooding and catastrophe? The hospital is able to take care of patients — even if stressed by the realities of one of the nation’s largest (climate-enhanced) natural disasters. As per the view from another hospital’s windows,
when William McKeon, the Texas Medical Center’s president, looked outside during the height of the storm, “We saw the water flowing and the streets looking like rivers when the bayou crested, but the lights were all on,” he said. “The people were inside, were caring for patients as they do every day.”
Without question, the climate adaptation investments have paid for themselves — in this one instance — in terms of reduced damage costs. It seems quite likely, though harder to calculate with assurance, that they have paid off in terms of saved lives as well.
And, Houston’s medical community already has its eyes on learning from Harvey to better prepare for tomorrow. “Following its protocol, the Catastrophic Medical Operations Center will conduct an after-study to compile evidence of how hospitals weathered the storm.”
In conclusion …
While must emphasize climate mitigation (reducing pollution), the reality is that humanity has driven a changed climate and we are already facing (and will, no matter what, face more) impacts from those changes. Thus, climate adaptation investments are necessary. Houston’s medical community’s performance during Hurricane Harvey proves that they pay off and provide a real return on investment.
NOTE: If Houston’s Medical System has not already, as part of its investment streams, started investing in climate mitigation (that at least intersects with adaptation), perhaps they will do so. What are examples of potential investment opportunities that meet this criteria?
Energy efficiency: cut demands for energy services through, for example, LED lighting and control systems … this can save $s directly, reduce pollution from energy production, while also helping adapt with greater resiliency during stressed power situations/outages.
On-site renewable energy: such as solar panels over parking lots (yes, they wouldn’t be producing much as the rain fell …) which, again, leads to reduced energy costs and pollution loads while providing on-site generation and resiliency if the grid is disrupted during a climate-driven catastrophe;
Green roofs and other ‘green’ methods to help reduce energy costs AND absorb rainfall to reduce runoffs. No, such investments wouldn’t soak in a 50 inch rainfall, but widespread green roofing could have reduced by the equivalent of a few inches the runoff from those roofs.
