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You don’t have to be that old to remember when fishing in Virginia meant searching for a body of water rod and reel in hand. This is changing as, with sea level rise, streets are increasingly flooded with ‘moon tides’ or in storm events where it didn’t occur (or less frequently) in the past.

A few years ago, a(n infamously) famous image came from Miami: an octopus that had come up from a storm drain during a ‘moon tide’ flooding event. Miami is spending $billions for adaptation to rising seas even as this is one of the hardest places in the nation to harden against rising seas due to its geological formation. Norfolk hasn’t seen an octopus (yet) but …

Right up there in terms of risk and difficulty in pursuing the ‘harden’ infrastructure against sea level rise (SLR): coastal Virginia.  With that in mind, it is good that Governor Northam created a Chief Resilience Officer with, in part, responsibility for developing a Coastal Resiliency Plan.

(Let’s be clear, however, about the Northam Administration at this time and the ‘climate math’: it is a one step forward, seven steps back situation in terms of climate mitigation and, therefore, addressing the root causes of the problems rather than simply dealing with symptoms (e.g., SLR and coastal flooding). We (Virginia and beyond) need aggressive action on both (mitigation and adaptation) fronts.)

The other day, ABC News ran an excellent piece on the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4): As White House debates validity of climate report, local officials are already at work.  The ‘local officials’ are from coastal Virginia where there has been, for the past decade or more, leading edge work on seeking to coordinate responses between government entities, businesses, non-profits, and others. (On this, see the ODU Resilience page/effort.)

Hampton Roads has already been experiencing some of the worst conditions on the East Coast attributed to climate change, as rising sea levels contribute to worsening flooding and struggling infrastructure.

Residents experience frequent “nuisance flooding” that covers roads, including in some cases the only way in and out of military bases.

In Norfolk it’s no longer unusual to see fish as roadkill, according to Skip Stiles, the executive director of an environmental nonprofit called Wetlands Watch.

In describing Donald Trump’s climate-science denialist reject of the NCA4, ABC’s focus on the Hampton Roads area highlights:

• Local officials have to deal with reality, not ideological dogma that leads to rejecting it;
• Virginia’s coastal areas face serious risks and challenges related to sea-level rise (within the overall set of issues related to climate change); and that,
• Serious climate impacts (‘nuisance flooding’ and ‘fish roadkill’) are happening today … this is about us, today, not (solely) about some indefinite future impacts on our “children and grandchildren”.

Also within the article is a good lay down of how climate-related problems aren’t ‘solely’ due to climate change.

Residents already experience more days of flooding every year due to outdated stormwater systems, gradually sinking land, and consequences of climate change like rising sea levels and more intense rain events

While not necessarily directly “climate mitigation,” investing in infrastructure (updating while repairing stormwater systems) and tackling other problems (such as replenishment of underground aquifers where overuse has accelerated land subsidence) is part of the package of required investments that will help reduce climate impacts while creating jobs and boosting economic activity at the same time.

The time to #ActOnClimate was yesterday. The time to act is today. And, it will be time to act tomorrow. Every moment of delay raises the costs of required action and means that impacts will be greater.

“In Norfolk [VA] it's no longer unusual to see fish as roadkill.”

https://t.co/oMWPPDiHda

— Dr. Genevieve Guenther (@DoctorVive) December 3, 2018

Hey local reporters: Here's an example of stellar reporting by @stephebbs on real-world local climate change impacts in American communities–in this case in coastal VA. @sejorg @NAHJ @NABJ @RTDNA @kneelandproject @_ClimateMatters @NOAAClimate @NASAClimate https://t.co/oZHsdQffI2

— Ed Maibach (@MaibachEd) December 3, 2018

On Thanksgiving eve, Trump (yet again) tweeted out idiocy related to climate change, demonstrating (yet again) his arrogant ignorance on the most critical issue facing humanity.

34 other times Donald Trump tweeted his ignorance about how weather works https://t.co/dq54sqoAkm pic.twitter.com/aUEGRMS0h8

— Gizmodo (@Gizmodo) November 22, 2018

Sigh … Pulling hair out … when things written in the past can be dusted off and used again verbatim.

The classic climate science denial line: it’s cold outside, we really could use some of that global warming …

Much of the US is incredibly cold — while the rest of the world isn’t … but let’s say Global Warming doesn’t exist …

To be clear, one moment’s weather situation doesn’t prove climate change … just like a cold weather snap in part of the world doesn’t prove it doesn’t exist.  Winter still happens, cold weather records still occur … but winters, globally, are shorter and not as cold. And, when it comes to weather records, they should be roughly balanced between hot and cold weather records — with human-driven climate change, high temperature records (including high lowest temperature) are blowing past cold records to the order of 10-1 globally decade to decade.

The above was Trump’s standard idiocy, feed to 10s of millions in #CultOfTrump who nod their head in blind agreement as their fearless leader fearlessly boards a flight to go to (climate-drive sea-level rise threatened) Mar-A-Lago. An idiocy fed to his flock on Thanksgiving eve followed up by another about cold weather on Thanksgiving.

Black Friday was reserved for aberrant shopping behavior and release of yet another increasingly dire climate science report.

In a seemingly failed effort to reduce attention to it, Team Trump released the Congressionally-mandated Fourth National Climate Assessment amid the Black Thursday shopping mania. In this Trump Administration report, government scientists (operating under some degree of Trump-ista suppresssion …) have documented what is happening already in the United States due to human-driven climate change and have dire forecasts as to what will happen with serious action to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

The report is pretty straightforward to summarize:

After @RealDonaldTrump tweets #climate #science idiocy,
#Trump Administration scientists speak ib #ClimateChange::
It’s Real,
It’s Here,
It’s Because of Fossil Fuels. And
The Sooner We Fix It, The Better.https://t.co/PcKpDSVanT@ClimateNexus #SciComm

— A Siegel (@A_Siegel) November 23, 2018

Climate Nexus has provided a good summary

This U.S. federal government report shows that:

• Human activity, like burning fossil fuels, is the primary cause for the warming temperatures we are undoubtedly experiencing.
• By the end of this century, fighting climate change will save hundreds of billions of dollars just in public health costs, and save thousands of lives a year.
• Americans are already paying for climate change as it makes storms more damaging, heat waves more deadly, wildfires more common, allergies worse and some diseases more widespread.
• The U.S. military, as well as many farmers, businesses, and local communities are already planning for and adapting to climate change.
• Climate change is a clear and present danger to the health and wealth of the American people.

Topline findings of the report include:

Human activity, primarily burning fossil fuels, is causing climate change. There is no credible alternative to global warming emissions to explain the warming.

• Global average temperatures have risen 1.8°F (1.0°C) since 1901, predominantly because of human activity, especially the emission of heat-trapping gases.
• Globally, 16 of the last 17 years are the warmest years on record.
• Depending on the region, Americans could experience an additional month to two month’s worth of days with maximum temperatures above 100°F (38°C) by 2050, with that severe heat becoming commonplace in the southeast by 2100.

Economic losses from climate change are significant for some sectors of the U.S. economy.

• In some sectors, losses driven by the impacts of climate change could exceed $100 billion annually by the end of the century.
• If emissions continue unabated, extreme temperatures could end up costing billions upon billions in lost wages annually by the end of the century, and negatively impact the health of construction, agricultural and other outdoor workers.
• Many aspects of climate change – including extreme heat, droughts, and floods – will pose risks to the U.S. agricultural sector. In many places, crop yields, as well as crop and grazing land quality, are expected to decline as a result.
• We may be underestimating our level of risk by failing to account for multiple impacts occurring at once, or not planning for impacts that will span across government borders and sector boundaries.
• Our aging infrastructure, especially our electric grid, will continue to be stressed by extreme weather events, which is why helping communities on the frontlines of climate impacts to adapt is so crucial.

Americans are already responding to the climate change impacts of burning fossil fuels.

• Increased global warming emissions have contributed to the observed increases in Atlantic hurricane activity since 1970.
• Climate change doubled the area burned by wildfires across the West between 1984 and 2015, relative to what would have burned without warming. Climate change was a greater factor in area burned between 1916 and 2003 than was fire suppression, fire management or non-climate factors.
• By 2100, annual acreage burned by wildfires could increase by as much as 6 times in some places. The U.S. spends an average of about $1 billion annually to fight wildfires, but spent over $2 billion in 2015 due to extreme drought. Costs exceeded $2 billion in the first 8 months of 2017.
• The U.S. military is already working to understand the increased risks of security issues resulting from climate change-induced resource shocks (droughts causing crop failure, for example, which can contribute to civil unrest) as well as extreme weather events and direct impacts on military infrastructure, like sea level rise or extreme heat at military bases.

Storm surge and tidal flooding frequency, depth and extent are worsened by sea level rise, presenting a significant risk to America’s trillion-dollar coastal property market.

• Global sea level has risen about 8-9 inches since 1880, 3 inches of which have come since just 1993. We can expect at least several inches more in the next 15 years, with 1-4 feet very likely by 2100, and as much as 8 feet physically possible by 2100.
• Sea level rise has already increased the frequency of high tide flooding by a factor of 5 to 10 since the 1960s for some U.S. coastal communities.
• Climate change is already hurting coastal ecosystems, posing a threat to the fisheries and tourism industries as well as public safety and human health. Continuing coastal impacts will worsen pre-existing social inequities as vulnerable communities reckon with how to adapt.

Every American’s health is at risk from climate change, with the elderly, young, working class and communities of color being particularly vulnerable.

• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will, by the end of the century, potentially save thousands of lives annually, and generate hundreds of billions of dollars of health-related economic benefits compared to a high emissions scenario.
• Allergies like hay fever and asthma are likely already becoming more frequent and severe.
• Warmer temperatures are expected to alter the range of mosquitoes and ticks that carry vector-borne diseases like Zika, West Nile virus, dengue, chikungunya and yellow fever.
• Drier conditions in Arizona and California have led to greater growth of the fungus that leads to Valley Fever (coccidioidomycosis) while Cryptococcal infections were strictly tropical before 1999, but have moved northward, with Oregon experiencing 76 cases in 2015.
• West Nile is projected to double by 2050, with a $1 billion annual price tag.

Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources will reduce the risks of climate impacts.

• A certain amount of warming is likely “locked in” so adaptation is still required.
• The faster we reduce global warming emissions, the less risk we face and the cheaper it will be to adapt.

Why issue a government report on the Friday after Thanksgiving?

The Trump administration tried to bury a new report about the devastating consequences of climate change.

Why? Because Trump's actions are actively making it worse.

Our task is clear. We must immediately and dramatically reduce carbon pollution emissions. https://t.co/4dhk4qUdzn

— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) November 23, 2018

Youth climate activists didn’t put their passion away last Tuesday evening at the end of balloting. The likely next Speaker of the House, who has indicated that (a) there will be recreation of a Climate-focused committee but (b) climate won’t be top of the agenda, has a few hundred passionate, knowledgable Sunrise Movement activists pounding on her door.

Video of the action here.

From Sunrise Movement:

This morning, hundreds of young people are taking action in DC to deliver our climate demands to the newly elected Congress. The newest science tells us we have just 12 years to transform society and our economy to stop climate change. But recent comments have surfaced showing that Dem leaders have no intention of fighting for a real climate plan anytime soon.

We’re on Capitol Hill taking action this morning because the only thing standing in the way of a just future is the failure of political leadership. Our demand is simple:

Champion a Green Jobs for All platform

to guarantee a job to anyone who wants one transforming our society over the next decade to stop climate change and protect the lives of all working people – black, brown, and white – from the ravages of disaster and pollution.

Young people just helped flip the House with a record turnout. We can no longer tolerate empty promises and words without action. We’re not expecting miracles; we understand that the GOP is corrupted by dirty oil money and will stall us at every turn. Sweeping change might not be possible until Trump is gone – but we need to start laying the groundwork now. Thanks for your help – we’ll be back in touch with more to share soon.

Climate Hawk, Representative Elect Alexandria Ocasio Cortez has joined Sunrise Movement‘s call for Pelosi and House Dems to lead and act, aggressively, on climate-related issues.  x

x

 “Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Party leadership must get serious about the climate and our economy. Nancy Pelosi and the Democratic Party leadership must get serious about the climate and our economy,

“Anything less is tantamount to denying the reality of climate change. The hopeful part is that we’re ushering in a new generation of leaders into the Democratic Party who understand the urgency and will help build a movement to create the political will for bold action.”  

Waleed Shahid

Justice Democrats Communications Director

A Green New Deal — to create new economic opportunities, address economic inequalities, and deal with environmental injustice through aggressive climate action — is central to Representative Elect Ocasio2018’s vision for a better nation and her role in the House Democratic caucus.

That the Climate Hawk youngest woman ever elected to Congress would join youth climate activists in pressuring the most powerful members in the Democratic Party to act more forcefully shouldn’t surprise us but should be welcomed and appreciated.

Let’s be clear, even if (when) Pelosi agrees that climate should be on top of the Agenda, the Senate GOP won’t go along nor will climate-science denier Trump.  This is about setting the agenda … setting the agenda for strong policy action when sanity and decency and competence return to the Oval Office. It is also about setting the agenda, for decades to come, in terms of American politics.

Since compromise and cooperation are off the table for the time being, the only way forward, they say, is for Democrats to go for broke. That means: fully champion decarbonization, make it a winning political issue, cobble together coalitions at the state and city level, and eventually force Republicans who want to compete for young or POC voters (should they ever again want to do so) to come to the table. Make them scared not to. That might work; persuasion hasn’t, and won’t.

….

elections also put Dems in a better position to pursue the go-for-broke strategy, to abandon the project of persuading Republicans, take full ownership of the issue, and simply grind out victories on climate and clean-energy policy wherever power aligns makes them possible.

Climate change will define politics for generations to come … the Democratic Party is, writ large, on the right side of the issue. It is well past time to make this truly central — it is the right thing to do, it is the right political thing to do.

Tuesday, Nov 13, 2018 · 5:22:51 PM +00:00 · A Siegel

Pelosi’s release re Sunrise Movementx

Tuesday, Nov 13, 2018 · 5:31:27 PM +00:00 · A Siegel

And, Sunrise Movement responds to (likely next) Speaker Pelosi:x

Wednesday, Nov 14, 2018 · 7:56:48 AM +00:00 · A Siegel

Thoughtful Dave Roberts thread starts w/”I don’t understand …” x

Long but useful.

And, x

Roberts’ reaction to that:x

Thursday, Nov 15, 2018 · 11:07:36 AM +00:00 · A Siegel

This (long) twitter thread provides a very useful window on the Sunrise Movement and AOC’s joining of it outside Pelosi. This was activism to push Pelosi/Democratic Party to rise to urgency of situation, not “protest” attacking Pelosi.x

Key point, the framing that this was “protest” came from a GOP staffer and, well, too many fell into it:x

Human-driven climate change creates many challenges for humanity from driving mounting extinction rates (and thus reducing biodiversity and undermining ecosystems) to disrupted weather patterns to fostering more extreme weather events to … Well, that list is distressing long.  Many of these risks and threats are difficult to project with exactitude: yes, climate change will lead to more extreme precipitation events but no one could have predicted Houston getting inundated by Hurricane Harvey’s 50 inches of rain a year or even a month ahead of time.

Some threats are, however, measurable with some exactitude. Sea level rise (SLR) is one of those.

Based on extensive scientific research and monitoring,

• We know, with certainty, that the seas are rising at a faster rate.
• We know, with certainty, that there are multiple factors at play
  • Global factors
    • heat expanding the oceans
    • land-ice melting adding to volume,
  • local factors that are both
    • natural elements like land shifts (subsidence) and ocean flows (eastern coasts, due to earth’s rotation, have additional sea level impacts compared to west coasts) and
    • direct human action like excessive groundwater withdrawals.
• We know, with certainty, that Virginia (Virginia Beach, Hampton Roads, Norfolk, …) is uniquely threatened by these above factors.

With that reality in mind, there have been serious efforts over the past decade to gain a better understanding of the risks to the region and develop viable adaptation pathways for whatever level of sea level rise does occur in the coming decades and century (centuries).  A core portion of this has been the Old Dominion University Resilience Collaborative, which has played a role in pulling together key actors (like the Department of Defense, local governments, major employers) for discussion and planning work. Under the Obama Administration, this work was one of the leading examples of Federal-Local collaboration for developing resilience approaches as government officials (at all levels) sought paths forward for both climate mitigation (reducing future impacts via, for example, reducing pollution loads) and adaptation (developing paths to deal with inevitable climate impacts, such as the sea level rise due to lagging impacts of already occurred carbon pollution).  With the climate-science denial of the Republican Party and Donald Trump, such efforts are not currently seriously on the national (Federal government) agenda.

Today, Governor Ralph Northam is moving to fill in this gap. Gov. Northam issued Executive Order 24 to create an increased Commonwealth focus to improve Virginia’s resilience to climate change impacts — from buildings better prepared to deal with weather extremes to developing paths for adapting to sea-level rise.

“As extreme weather events become more frequent and more intense, the safety and economic well-being of every Virginian is put at greater risk,” said Governor Northam. “The actions the Commonwealth will undertake as a result of this Executive Order will ensure we address this growing challenge head on, setting Virginia on a path towards resilience to near and long-term natural catastrophes and enhancing our public health and economic vitality with a whole of government approach.”

With EO24, Governor Northam has created a position of Chief Resilience Officer (CRO) for the Commonwealth that will (at least for now) a dual-hat responsibility for the Secretary of Natural Resources Matthew Strickland. EO24 outlines a wide range of tasks and responsibilities, from assessing risks/resiliency of government buildings and facilities to developing a Virginia Coastal Resiliency Plan.

“With this Executive Order, the Commonwealth of Virginia seizes the opportunity to lead in creating new and innovative adaptive concepts and to work across a collaborative group of
federal, state, regional and community stakeholders to ensure the vitality and adaptive growth of our coastal communities for our future,” said Special Assistant to the Governor for Coastal Adaptation and Protection Rear Admiral Ann C. Phillips, U.S. Navy (ret’d). “As recent weather and ongoing coastal flooding events in this year alone have shown us, we have no time to waste.”

This EO looks to be serious as a meaningful step forward to incorporating climate change impacts and risks into Virginia governmental planning. As an example, it states that all new-build government projects starting as of 1 January 2020 will have to incorporate sea-level rise and resiliency into their design and planning.

As to ‘serious’, discussing Virginia government and climate change requires mentioning the elephant in the room: construction of fracked-fossil gas pipelines that will be the equivalent, in climate impact, of building 45 new coal-fired power plants. In other words, Virginia’s climate math is clear: the Mountain Valley Pipeline’s and Atlantic Coast Pipeline’s climate impacts overwhelm all the other good incremental measures that Governor Northam is putting into place.  E024 is a good step forward while enabling and allowing the construction of this massive additional fossil-foolish infrastructure is the equivalent of two giant leaps backward in terms of worsening the problems that EO24 is meant to address.

Even so, EO24 is a meaningful move toward better Commonwealth governance in the face of climate-change risks. The measures outlined within should increase government resilience to climate change impacts while fostering improved private-sector resiliency. And, with EO24, Governor Northam is putting Virginia in a better position to work, in the future, with a more rational Federal executive structure.

[Read more →]

Looking back a decade, solar photovoltaiic (PV) prices were over 20 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh), uncertainty existed as to polysilicon pricing (one of the reasons why Solyndra, potentially, seemed to make sense if silicon prices wouldn’t drop), and the future seemed extremely bright for concentrated solar power (CSP) leveraging solar power for heat to drive turbines for electricity generation.  With CSP electricity pricing in roughly 15 cents per kwh and prospects for driving pricing down, many energy analysts looking to a clean-energy future saw bright prospects for CSP. In the late 2000s (2009/2010), market analysts project global deployment of at least 40 gigawatts of CSP capacity by 2020.

In the interim, solar pv prices have plunged with some bids around the world falling below 2 cents/kwh while CSP prices fell less rapidly and less dramatically. Rather than being booming with 10s of gigawatts installed already, CSP global deployment is about five gigawatts of capacity and no one is projecting 40 gigawatts installed by (the end of 2020).

This rather dramatic change does not mean that CSP is ‘down and out’ but that its role in a clean energy future has — along with many other other players in moving to a prosperous, climate-friendly future — has changed.

CSP has several significant discriminators, to its advantage, compared to pv deployments. Heat storage is (relatively) cheap and thus CSP plants can operate through periods of shade in a day and can store heat for generating electricity when the sun is down. And, a CSP system can be associated with a traditional (whether gas turbine, biomass, or otherwise) thermal generation plant as an adjunct to ‘clean up’ the total electrons from the plant with a mix of traditional and solar heat driving the turbines.

Having looked somewhat intensively at CSP (both CSTP (concentrated thermal power) and CPV (concentrated pv)) roughly a decade ago and paid little attention since, I have thoughts (as per above) as to CSP’s status but really wonder the reality of the situation. For a variety of reasons, I’ll be able to test my thinking as an opportunity appeared to revisit the arena, learn the reality of CSP industry today, and gain perspective on its future from the industry’s leaders as I’ll be attending CSP Madrid in a few weeks (13-14 November specifically).

With leading figures from across the industry and across the globe, CSP Madrid offers a chance for ‘ground truth’ about this industry for considerations as to how it might fit in accelerating efforts to address climate change by cleaning up the electricity grid even as we see to ‘electrify everything’.

The agenda looks quite worthwhile (thus a detour to Madrid for the conference) with the following underlining this year’s conference:

“China and the Middle East will drive CSP into a new ear of cost reduction.”

If you’re interested in attending the conference, the organizers have offered a €200 discount if you register with discount code: Siegel-
Friend-200.  Hope this interests you and to see you there.

Erev Yom Kippur’s Virginia Climate Crisis Forum (full event video) featured Senate candidates Senator Tim Kaine (D) and his climate-science-denying opponent, Corey Stewart (R).  The several hundred (perhaps 400) attendees heard Kaine give a reasoned set of comments about climate science and policy issues. They also, unfortunately, suffered through deceitful commentary from fossil-foolish Stewart, who basked in the glory of his willingness to show up to speak to a hostile audience, called for civility while gleefully spouting standard climate-science denialist talking points and foosil-foolish policy propositions.

Stewart’s time on stage was filled with deception and deceit. Time is too short (for all of us) to dissect it all, thus looking at one specific item demonstrates clearly how Corey uses very standard science denial tactics – take a fact and twist it to create an #AlternativeFacts distortion of reality – to arrive at a false conclusion and to deceive.

Upfront, since it is important to package deceit in a “truth sandwich,” the question of flooding and Sea-Level Rise (SLR) in the Hampton Roads region is both straightforward and complex.

“A new NASA-led study shows Hampton Roads has one of the highest rates of relative sea level rise—the combined effects of sinking land and rising seas—along the U.S. East Coast, about an inch (23 millimeters) every five years”

Within “sinking land and rising seas” (and not discussing items like greater moisture in atmosphere and a greater share of rain in severe precipitation events), the situation is roughly 90-95% human-driven, with a relatively small “natural” element.

• Human driven climate change related (roughly 70-80% of total)
  • Warming of oceans ==> global sea level rise
  • Melting of land glaciers ==> global sea level rise
  • Changes to ocean circulation (Gulf Stream) ==> local sea level rise
• Other human action related (perhaps 15-20% of total)
  • Extensive drawing of groundwater leading to land subsidence
  • NOTE: This is a quite addressable issue that will cost perhaps $1B to ameliorate/solve while improving the area’s long-term water supply and reducing pollution loads in the Chesapeake Bay.
• Natural (perhaps 5-10% of total)
  • Over thousands of years, there are land shifts going on due to melting of glaciers from the last ice age. (This is “GIA“.)

Reasons for increased sea-water flooding in Hampton Roads area (page 5)

In short, there is a double whammy of rising seas and subsiding land that is at play in the Hampton Roads area. And with a complex interplay of “man” and “nature”, an interplay of human-driven climate change and other causes/elements.  Not simple, not single issue, but understandable, explainable, and even addressable.

Spewing falsehoods from the podium …

With that quick summary of the reality in the situation in mind, how did Stewart deceive? Here’s what he spewed out last night:

“…with regard to sea-level rise, the reality is is that between 1950 and 1970, Virginia began a rapid increase, due to improvements in pump technologies, a rapid reduction,  a rapid withdrawal in the amount of groundwater that was being taken out of the Virginia coastal aquifer. And as a result of that as the water went down and the ground began to compress, yes it is sinking compared to the level of the sea but it’s not so much the level of the sea increase as much as it is a matter of the actual ground subsiding. and so this this this is a scientific fact.”

No, Corey, it is NOT “a scientific fact” that the challenges with sea-level rise are solely or even mainly due to ground water withdrawals.

Stewart — as science deniers are wont to do — twisted facts (that groundwater withdrawals contribute to land subsidence) into a seemingly plausible alternative explanation that is simply not truthful (this is not the primary driver nor is it “a scientific fact”).

Without question, Stewart was not truthful and stated outright falsehoods in this discussion of sea-level rise. This is just a taste of the deceitful and dishonest commentary he gave last night.

Debating and discussing with those who deceive and are willing to distort reality, in front of audiences, is almost always a losing battle. Truth-tellers are at a significant disadvantage. One of the tools for dealing with that deceit is to challenge it, to call it out, immediately. This can be tough, as who can be expert in every facet of an issue and be able to speak with authority as to specific (potentially quite obscure) facts at a moment’s notice?

Stewart’s deceptive comments on SLR are a great example. I am familiar with SLR and the region, having sat through more than a few briefings and knowing some top experts. While not an expert, I am far from ignorant on the issue. Thus, I knew (KNEW) that what Stewart said was false but had to do some (relatively quick) research (web searching) to get to the details provided above.  Chasing lies with truth is hard …

Many in the audience started to voice their disgust for Stewart’s deceit (lies) at his false assertion “this is a scientific fact.”  Stewart chimed in, as the boos and calls to ‘tell the truth’ began, with “I accepted your invitation and showed up; the least you can do is show me some respect for showing up.” The moderator stepped in with a call for civility call and then allowed Stewart’s deceitful and (often flagrantly) false comments to go unchallenged and uncorrected.  Even though this was a science-aligned audience, allowing deceit to go unchallenged is dangerous and wrong.

“…evidence, cognitive science, etc. indicates that allowing someone to repeatedly spew out lies and misinformation simply helps perpetuate those lies and misinformation. That’s just the way the human brain works, which is why you just shouldn’t do it.”

And, as to “civility” owed to those who engage in deceit and lies about climate change, the question I wanted to (but wasn’t called on to) ask last night was:

In any event,

• Climate change should be part of every political campaign, in fact should be top-tier in our political discussion. Kudos to FACS for setting this up and thanks to the 400 people who took time out of their busy schedules to attend.
• While science deniers and purveyors of falsehoods should not be given a seat at the table, if they ARE given that seat, they should be held to a standard of behavior. Organizers and moderators owe honest engagement a serious effort to expose deceit and lies. They should hold speakers accountable for deceitful engagement. Simply assuming your audience is bright enough not to be swayed or influenced by deceit is not sufficient.
• As I sat there, with my teenage daughter getting far angrier than I and getting ready to scream outrage, a simple question came to mind: where were the real activists? For example, why weren’t there 50 people standing, silently, with their backs turned to climate-denier Stewart as he spouted falsehoods to make clear (with ‘civility’) their disgust for his climate science denial?

[Read more →]

The science is clear: humanity is driving climate change.

The science is clear: this is creating risks for humanity.

The appropriate responses are debated and argued — even as there are those who simply deny reality (looking at you, Donald Trump …) and work to obstruct meaningful action to mitigate climate change and reduce risks (looking at you, ExxonMobil).

A legitimate case can be made that climate change is the most serious challenge and opportunity before the nation, before humanity. Considering the serious risks and challenges, it is essentially negligence that, far too often, “climate silence” is reigning in our society. When major events occur with clear climate linkages, reporters too rarely mention climate change. Major reports on climate risks are buried within the newspaper, if even reported, because “everyone already knows this … it isn’t news …” Presidential debate after presidential debate have passed without questions about climate change.

Regretfully, far too many political campaigns operate in the same way as debate moderators — climate change isn’t the elephant in the room because, well, it isn’t in the room for debate moderators and reporters focused on “horse race” discussions.

Earlier this year, activists in Texas’ 7th District provided a template of how to change this dynamic. Several groups worked together to have a ‘climate forum’ in the Democratic primary: over 400 people attended this two-hour event which included not only the House primary candidates, but also Beto O’Rourke.

Speaking at the Houston Climate Forum. Texas should be the national leader on environmental efforts and protecting our air, water, and public lands. pic.twitter.com/yKal9xoQCk

— Beto O'Rourke (@BetoORourke) January 27, 2018

All of the candidates were given a set of questions relevant for climate change with a ‘let us know which you are ready to engage on’. This led to substantive discussions, with both convergent and divergent perspectives on ‘what to do’ which informed voters. Among other things, one of the lead organizers (Professor Dan Cohan, Rice University) explained to me that this helped ‘educate’ the candidates: that, writ large, they were all more thoughtful related to climate issues than what he saw/perceived perhaps a year earlier.

Cohan summarized:

“Whoever is elected to Congress this November, they’ll know there’s a motivated contingent of voters eager to see a more vigorous federal response to climate.

“If we’ve shown that to be true in the oil patch of a red state, perhaps similar events elsewhere could provide a wake-up call to other representatives as well.”

A “similar event” is occurring next week in Virginia.

The Faith Alliance for Climate Solutions (FACS) has organized a “Virginia Climate Crisis Forum” (Tuesday, 18 Sept, 7:30 pm, James Madison High School, Vienna) to which the candidates for Senate have committed to talk: Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) and his Republican opponent, Corey Stewart.

In addition to being a critical issue, this is perhaps the policy arena where the differences between the parties and between the candidates is starkest*. Writ large, Democratic Party politicians (and members) understand that humanity is driving climate change (primarily through burning of fossil fuels), support government investment in research and developing solutions, and have agreement on pathways to mitigate climate risks.

In contrast, the GOP earns its “Greedy Oil Party” moniker with blunt denial of basic science, rejection of paths to mitigate climate risks and seize benefits from climate actions, and promotion of policies and actions that worsen the situation and hamper ability to deal with growing climate challenges.

The two candidates are, in this case, sterling examples of this glaring divide between the two parties.

Tim Kaine has developed a strong understanding of climate issues and has real, substantive perspectives on how to move forward. Here’s a summary from his “issues” page:

Climate change imperils our planet’s future and threatens our economy. Tim believes that protecting our natural resources and environment are critical for our long-term health, safety and prosperity.

Stewart, in stark contrast, blindly parrots ignorant nonsense about climate issues as exemplified during a Republican primary debate, when he called the scientific conclusions about humanity driving climate change “a hoax,” asserted that this is all about making Al Gore rich, and (in a moment emblematic of a Trump clone) falsely claimed that the most developed countries are the “least polluters.” (For a quick window on this absurdity: while China is the top emitter globally, the United States remains solidly in second place … and Americans emit more than twice as much, per capita, as the Chinese.)

?

Tuesday’s evening will provide a venue for hearing directly from the Senate candidates about climate issues. This is something that should be occurring in race after race across the nation. Kudos to FACS for arranging this to happen …

In Texas 7th District, 400 people attended the climate forum in person along with others watching on Facebook.

To show that Virginians care about this issue, understanding climate risks, and wish to see action from their elected leaders, filling James Madison High School’s auditorium would be a good signal.

If you wish to help send that signal, RSVP HERE.

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This event is occurring on Erev Yom Kippur, the start of the most significant day in the Jewish calendar. The Faith Alliance has expressed “regret” for this conflict, highlighting that the Day of Atonement is an appropriate time for reflection on climate change.

As part of the prayers for the Day of Atonement, the Vidui, the Al Cheyt or recital of sins, is perhaps the most important. The prayer is a recitation of individual wrongs, an acceptance of failures to meet the highest of ideals. A key word is Ashamnu, or “we have sinned.”  Considering climate change within this context can provide powerful tools for reflection about personal and collective responsibilities.

The following is a climate-oriented sermon prelude to a Viddui recitation:

This is Yom Kippur.

This is a night for confession.

So let us be honest.

If ever there was a time for candor, this is it.

We humans are not good with limits.

We are pushing the planet and its animal resources to the limit.

We want what we want when we want it.

We pretty much take, hunt, fish, and consume until someone or something stops us or until there is no more to be taken.

Do you remember the Viddui we will be reciting in a few minutes? It’s the Confession prayer that lists our sins alphabetically.

a…b…c…

We abuse. We besmirch. We consume. We destroy. We excuse ourselves. We forget the consequences of our actions. We are greedy.

I could continue through the alphabet, and I should go on because, as the saying goes, although religion ought to comfort the afflicted, religion also needs to afflict the comfortable. And we truly do need to be uncomfortable tonight. Remember an alternate name for Yom Kippur is Yom Ha-Din…the Day of Judgment. This night is meant to be a time for severity.

As I wrote years ago,

We are living in a time of consequences, a time where humanity’s future (and our own, unless you are on your deathbed, futures) require confronting Inconvenient Truth, and acting in this regard.

The individual matters and we need, for Yom Kippur, to judge ourselves with “severity” — to push our own comfortable ways as to whether we ‘sin’ and damage and harm unknowingly or knowingly.

May the attendees and participates of “The Virginia Climate Crisis Forum” be prepared to judge with severity; and, to make their decisions for November votes with that judgement in mind.

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In addition to occurring during Yom Kippur, the VA Climate Crisis Forum will occur as the East Coast (more the Carolinas than Virginia) are going to be just starting the real assessment of and recovery from a climate change enhanced/driven climate catastrophe: Hurricane Florence.

In terms of linkages between human-driven climate change and Florence, here are three major ones:

• Increased heat (ocean and atmospheric) ==> more moisture in the air, stronger storms.
• Sea Level Rise (from thermal expansion of oceans and glacier melting) ==> additional height to storm surge (which means not just height but geographic extent).
• High Pressure System to North ==> a high pressure system to the north, associated with climate change impacts on Arctic weather/air patterns, prevented Florence from turning to the north. Assessment, by the top experts, is that in a ‘non-climate changed world’, a storm like Florence likely would have turned north, while well out to sea, and not have had landfall as a hurricane.

With this disastrous climate-related event ‘fresh’ in mind, hopefully Florence is something that the moderator will discuss with both Senator Kaine and white-nationalist (sympathizer/enabler) Corey Stewart.

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* As to the “starkest” difference between the political parties in 2018, I’d point to the Democratic Party’s belief in the rule of law and the necessity for Congress to fulfill its Constitutional obligations for oversight compared to the Republican Party’s embrace of the Cult Of Trump and all of the cascading implications of aiding and abetting Trump’s criminal activity (from violations of the Emoluments’ Clause to election finance violations to likely treason to …).  Climate change, however, might be at the confluence of the most serious, long impact POLICY arena and the massive gulf between the two parties.

Event Announcement:

The planet is getting hotter; we must take action. The Virginia Climate Crisis Forum, hosted by Faith Alliance for Climate Solutions (FACS), will focus on how Virginia is being and will be affected by climate change.

Virginia Climate Crisis: Solutions to Climate Change
Tuesday, September 18, 2018
7:30 PM (doors open at 7 PM)
James Madison High SchoolRegister: bit.ly/FACSclimateforum

Featured Speakers (2018 candidates for U.S. Senator from Virginia):

• U.S. Senator Tim Kaine
• Corey Stewart, Chairman At-Large, Prince William County Board of Supervisors

Panelists include:

• Samantha Ahdoot, MD, FAAP, Chair and Co-founder, Virginia Clinicians for Climate Action
• Major General Rick Devereaux, USAF (Ret.), Former Director of Operational Planning, Policy, & Strategy, U.S. Air Force; Advisory Board, Center for Climate and National Security
• Fairfax County Supervisor Dan Storck

Moderated by Rev. Dr. Jean Wright.

The forum is open to the public and free of charge. Space is limited. Doors open at 7 PM.

We regret that the timing of this event may prevent members of the Jewish community from attending because this falls on Yom Kippur. Yom Kippur is a day of atonement, providing an appropriate context for talking about climate change, taking responsibility and asking for forgiveness for our contributions to this crisis, and resolving to address our failings through personal action.

Food waste is a serious challenge. Often said, there is more than enough food to feed humanity enough calories if we didn’t waste so much food. In the developing world, that food is mainly wasted before it gets near the consumer. In the developed world, that waste occurs mainly close to or by the consumer.

While addressing food wastage is of highest value, of high value is figuring out how to handle food waste (from perfectly edible untouched to scraps after service) in ways better than simply adding to landfills and causing methane pollution.  One of these paths: anaerobic digestion (AD) to handle food waste (and, well, animal waste) and produce methane (for burning as bio-gas for electricity or heating) along with high-quality organic material for soil

Re4ormed is a start-up early stage firm with it first AD system at the U.S. Naval Academy (USNA) to process midshipmen food waste into electricity. The system “processes 60 tons of pre- and post-consumer food waste per month from the midshipmen dining facility and produces 60,000 kWh of renewable electricity per month.”

Now the Re4ormed AD system developed in response to a military requirement: is there a better way to deal with food (cafeteria) waste when US military forces deploy to places like Djibouti or Afghanistan or even to disaster relief in Puerto Rico?  And, can that food waste be turned into value? E.g., renewable electrons to reduce requirements for diesel fuel?  Thus, the Re4ormed AD system is containerized — with an ability to move it to where it might be required. Interesting — semi-mobile (okay, movable/transportable even if not ‘mobile’) anaerobic digestion.

The USNA Re4ormed AD system is a demonstration project — still needing development before commercialization  — but an interesting project.

“Interesting”, with start-ups, often means ‘requires resources’.  And, Re4ormed is a semi-finalist for a a veteran small business grant from StreetShares andBoston Brewing Co. Re4ormed competition is sort of interesting primarily food start-ups and, bizarrely, a mobile cigar lounge (which, with all due respect, should not be in that group as it is the only one of 14 that clearly hurts, rather than helps improve, human health).  The only ‘clean energy’ option in the mix: Re4ormed.

Re4ormed, in my mind, looks like a useful system to have move forward into more development. They are, at this time, working on a $1.1 million project for a beef-cattle feedlot with an expected payoff of 4-5 years.  That is a serious (near) commercial demonstration project. If it it works and at an affordable price, think about the food waste in your local school no longer heading to landfills but going to help heat the school. Imagine being able to move in a dozen Re4ormed AD container systems for an Olympics and turning the ticket holders food waste into energy. Imagine … well, I can imagine.

If you wish to help Re4ormed along, vote by 23:59 (before midnight) Saturday, August 25th. Unlike some elections, every vote doesn’t just count, every vote is counted.

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India’s accelerating moves to a clean energy economy has received inadequate attention at this blog (and, well, in much of the world).  From leveraging plunging solar prices to enable a viable path to eliminating (the lowest level of) energy poverty to trains with solar panels for powering auxiliary demands to significant reductions in projected coal demands to …, India’s clean energy economy is booming and impressive.  Shifting India’s future from a coal-dominated power system to solar, wind, batteries, and other clean energy options is a critical part of reducing global emissions (or, well, avoiding continued growth), for reducing Indian poverty, and opening the doors for ever-growing prosperity in the South Continent. India’s achievements and plans merit attention

Within this, the Indian government recently announced an impressive plan to auction 40 gigawatts of solar (30) and wind (10) projects every year for ten years. This will add 400 gigawatts of clean energy generation capacity. For context, India currently has about 70 gw of clean energy capacity deployed, of which 22 is solar and 34 is wind.  While the auctioning won’t be fully deployed by then, this plan would put Indian at about 350 GW and 140 GW of wind by 2030 and providing the majority of the forecasting 860GW of generating capacity.

This is an impressive statement … consider the confidence that the Indian government has in renewable energy: plans for a more than ten-fold increase in the coming ten years.

However, something to consider … is this plan’s structure conceived correctly?

Ten years of auctioning the same amount of solar and wind every year … hmmm …

• To achieve 40 GW of annual capacity installation could (will) require building up additional engineering, production, installation, etc capacity …
• Planning on the same amount of installation assumes rapidly building up capacity than artificially flattening that growth to a stable position.

With what is known about solar and wind price (and learning) curves, this seems — on the surface — a plan that will change significantly just in the coming few years: with built up capacity and plunging prices, India almost certainly will be adding additional wind and solar projects to this plan (and adding significant storage (battery) into the plans as well).  Thus, the impressive plan for bidding out 400 gw of solar and wind seems almost certain to be overtaken by reality and become even more impressive in the years to come.

India Power Generation: In the first 2 months of current fiscal, no new #coal, #gas or #diesel based capacity was added. Of the 746 MW that has been added, #solar accounts for 91%.https://t.co/tjANR3afw0

— Coal Numerical (@CoalNumerical) July 5, 2018