Get Energy Smart! NOW!

Certain days in the calendar call for different forms of reflection.  Today, the 4th of July, should foster sober contemplation of the strengths and weaknesses of American society; how and why it has changed for the better; and a somber understanding of where we have work to do in ‘the search for a more perfect union’. 

Clearly, the American political dialogue is broken, with too many interested more in scoring points than securing prosperity. We have, in the polemics of the day, too many who have lost sight of a simple reality: you are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.

Thus, when it comes to Global Warming, there are those who have a semblance of acknowledging scientists’ dire warnings and others, dominating one party, who demonstrate anti-science syndrome.  And, sadly, many of the Anti-Science Syndrome suffering Haters Of a Livable Economic System seem to believe — truly believe — that we need to “Drill Here! Drill Now” so that we can “Pay Less!”.  This belief flying in the face of what we are learning about the limitations of oil ‘production’ and the exponential demand growth in minor economics like the People’s Republic of China.  

What is truly disheartening is that embracing facts — rather than seeking their own ‘facts’ — might help lead these people, who in theory wish the United States prosperity and security, into a no-regrets strategy that would create prosperity through a domestic clean-energy path forward.

While it seems the height of fancy to hope for, a simple reality: the United States could achieve a ‘clean energy independence day’ in a remarkably fast timeframe if the political, social, and business spectrum would wake up to this possibility and decide to move forward with it.

As the American Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) reminded me today (see after the fold), American and Americans fostered the birth of modern solar technologies — and we remain in a situation to recapture a serious leading role if we simply choose to do so.

And, the same is true with essentially every clean-energy arena, from eneryg efficiency to wind to … America and Americans have had leadership roles. The atrophying competitive position results from a lack of leadership … and that too many ‘leaders’ are more interested in their own facts to score partisan points than actual truth to foster better policy.

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Yet another guest post from the thoughtful BruceMcF laying out how a Steel Interstate program provides one of the most sensible national policy paths forward to address our intertwined economic, energy, and environmental challenges … and opportunities.

(Right: Liberty Line) The Steel Interstate proposal is an effort to build Rapid Electric Freight Rail Tollways across the country ~ east to west and north to south ~ to:

This guest post from Steven D provides a perspective on Global Disruption’s impact in South Asia.

I love numbers.  They bring a precision to information that language often lacks.  Like the number 43.  Here, allow me to let Mattheiu Ricard, a Buddhist monk and a scientist living in Nepal to explain the importance of numbers.

In the beautiful kingdom of Bhutan, where I spent nine years, recent investigations by the only glaciologist in the country, Kharma Thoeb, have shown that a natural moraine dam that separates two glacial lakes in the Lunana area is today only 31 meters deep, in comparison to 74 meters in 2003. If this wall gives way, some 53 million cubic meters of water will rush down the valley of Punakha and Wangdi, causing immense damage and loss of life. Altogether there are 400 glacial lakes in Nepal and Bhutan that may break their natural dams and flood populated areas lower in the valleys. If these floods occur, the glaciers will increasingly shrink. This will cause drought, since the streams and rivers will not be fed by melting snow.

You may have noticed that he didn’t mention the number 43.  He does say, however that the natural moraine damn separating these two two glacial lakes high in the Himalayas is 31 meters thick today when it used to be 74 meters thick in 2003.  I am no scientist but I do know my way around a calculator.  Seventy-four minus thirty-one equals 43 meters.  And do you know what else my calculator tells me?  That this natural dam has lost 5.375 meters of thickness per year since 2003.

For people like me who are metrically challenged I found a handy website that converts meters into feet and inches.  Forty-three meters is the same as 141 feet and 1 inch.  That’s a lot of shrinkage in only eight years.

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When it comes to discussing the value and power of a clean-energy future, in a way that touches core values and life-experiences of a good share of Americans, perhaps it is time to think and speak UMW.  No … not the United Mine Workers.  Instead,  when we think UMW and energy, we should turn to three “institutions” that have a particular role in America (and Americans’ lives):

• University:  Americans aspire to see their children go to university.  “Seventy-five percent of parents in 2010 thought a college education was very important, versus only 58 percent in 1983 and 36 percent in 1978.”  (And, have their children going to schools.) 
• Military:  The military is, according to poll after poll, the most respected institution in America.
• Wal-Mart: Yes, Wal-Mart … bear with me … Representing several percent of the U.S. economy, “each year, 93 percent of American households shop at Wal-Mart.”

Not only are UMW central to Americans aspirations, values, and consumer habits, UMW also stands for institutions that, in their own ways and for their own reasons, are leaders in energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE) toward a sustainable and resilient future.

Across the nation, universities are tackling energy efficiency and sustainability for a range of reasons from pure fiscal (energy savings (pdf)) to needing to meet youth expectations (note Princeton Review Guide to Green Colleges available in pdf here) to a fundamental respect for science with an understanding of climate change and the need for universities to take a leadership role in climate mitigation efforts.

Energized by service members wounded and killed protecting oil convoys in Iraq (and Afghanistan) and stunned by 2008 oil price spike, the military had already started to address energy challenges seriously when the Obama Administration began to take steps to accelerate these actions.  Real-world events, a growing military realization of threats and opportunities, and an Administration intent on fostering American leadership in the clean-energy sector have coalesced to foster real change across the military services when it comes to the energy domain.   Again, the military focus derives from a C2 focus: costs (in blood, treasure, and risks) and capability (reduced risks and improved capabilities).  Increasingly, America’s military is realizing that Energy Smart practices are a path toward increased capabilities at lowered cost and lower risks.

When it comes to being focused ‘on the bottom line’, there are few companies out there that match Wal-Mart in public imagination or business reality. Renowned for low wage strategies that leave employees seeking public assistance for basic needs and avoiding buying pens for its Corporate staff, Wal-Mart isn’t exactly a poster child of doing good for the sake of the general good.  Wal-Mart has discovered that a dedicated focus on energy efficiency and renewable energy options will lower costs to “fulfill our mission to save people money”.   Installing cool roofs (when doing a new roof or a reroofing) has such a good pay back (weeks) that, according to a Wal-Mart executive, “the numbers are so good that we’ve mandated it on all projects. In fact, the numbers are so good that if we ever build a store at the North Pole, we’d white roof it even though, in that case, it might not payoff.” Installing skylights has a direct payback of something like 14 months in energy savings but also leads to boosted sales during sunny weather.  Putting doors on refrigerated units and using LED light drives down energy use by well over 70 percent while reducing losses due to spoilage.  And, Wal-Mart is driving energy efficiency into its supply chain and clearly expects to see reduced costs return. Wal-Mart is also sharing best practices and lessons with other American companies with the planning that (a) increased demand for energy efficient products will drive down costs to use them and (b) reduced energy costs will mean more money in Americans’ pockets (e.g., Wal-Mart customers will have more money to spend at Wal-Mart).  Roughly one percent of America’s energy use, Wal-Mart estimates that its suppliers equal about ten times that and similar companies about the same.  If Wal-Mart achieves a 25 percent reduction in its energy use and manages to drive that into suppliers and competitors, this is the equivalent to reducing total U.S. energy usage by five percent … all done while providing a path for increased Wal-Mart profitability.

UMW 

Each of these have a particular role in America’s life (especially, in my opinion, among many who might cringe with the term “green” and (mistakenly) think that “environment” is at odds with “economy”) and each is a leader in establishing paths for a prosperous, secure, climate-friendly future. 

Universities. Military. Wal-Mart. Each of these have determined that Energy Smart practices are, simply, smart and help achieve their objectives (improved educational performance (universities), securing the nation (military), making a profit (Wal-Mart)).   Consider the power of speaking to and highlighting how the Energy Smart choices of the institution where Americans want their children to go, the institution which Americans most trust, and the store Americans most often shop.

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Today, Senator Energy Smart Jeff Merkley (D-OR) joined with three other Senators (Bennet, Udall, Carper) to introduce the Oil Independence for a Stronger America Act of 2011.  Through programs in five arenas, this bill targets eliminating “overseas” oil imports by 2030.

The largest proposed savings would come from accelerating electric vehicle adoption and continuing to tighten fuel efficiency standards. Alternative fuels would provide the second largest tranche of replacements. And, improved transportation options (such as equalizing tax benefits between public transit and car commuters) and improving the nation’s freight infrastructure (including a look at electrified rail) would provide the last two major additional elements.  The last — good payoff but relatively small levels of oil demand reductions — would be from measures (such as energy efficiency) to lower the demand for home heating oil. All told, the bill’s sponsors project this legislation to foster an eight million barrel per day (roughly 40 percent of current US demand) reduction in US oil demand by 2030.  This is two million barrels a day more than the United States imports from non-North American nations today.

Consider something.   Eight million barrels per day at $100 equals $800 million per day not sent overseas or nearly $300 billion per year.  How much better would the U.S. economy be with $300 billion to be invested within our shores rather than sent overseas to fund others’ lifestyles and economies?  Amid a focus on ‘reducing the deficit’ and ‘addressing the debt’, we — as a nation — should be serious about reducing our ever-worsening energy deficits.

While this bill is serious and has meaningful measures, after a quick glance at its 80 pages, it seems to have  several challenges and shortfalls:

• Its assumptions about “North American” (Canadian and Mexican) oil exports to the United States are, well, optimistic.  Mexico is quite likely to end its oil export days this decade (and quite possibly within the next five years).    The prospects for continued (expanded) Canadian oil exports are entirely reliant on expanded tar sands production which is far from an environmental friendly prospect.
• The inclusion of natural gas transportation. Simply put, analysis suggests that the efforts to massively subsidize natural gas vehicles resemble something akin to a fossil-foolish version of corn-ethanol.  The numbers don’t pan out.
• No discussion of how ‘smart growth’ could be fostered through inclusion of location efficiency (and energy efficiency) in the mortgage process.  Nor does there seem to be significant elements about how other actions (such as fostering telecommuting, alternative work schedules, etc) could have tremendous impacts on the nation’s oil demands.

Perhaps most importantly, while ‘major’ in what it proposes, this represents an incremental step (even if an important one) against the threat that the national economy faces from Peak Oil’s threat to radically reduce our nation’s supply to feed its ‘oil addiction’.  We — as individuals, businesses, communities, a nation — must take these types of measures … and more … if we are going to navigate the treacherous perfect storm that Peak Oil and Climate Disruption is creating.

See after the fold for a summary of the bill’s key elements.

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How should we understand the cost of a gallon of gasoline?

This is a very serious question with a myriad of layers and implications.

The price of gasoline, at the pump, is the most prominent indicator of energy costs for a very large share of humanity. Whether driving a car or taking a bus or even walking on a street, the ‘arm and a leg’ brightly lit sign that sparks a “WTF” moment at some high figure is the most immediate interaction that people have with the price of energy.

However outraged Americans might be at $4.49.9 per gallon gasoline, that price doesn’t come close to reflecting the true costs of fuel. Not included are health costs (cancers, asthma, otherwise), the subsidies for systems using energy (such as tax money spent on roads, highway maintenance, police, parking, …), opportunity costs (what better uses for the land?), security (such as overseas military operations), and environmental damage — such as that pesky little issue of Climate Change.  Thus, Americans most prominent and most emotional engagement with energy prices sends false signals that misleads as to the true implications of burning a gallon of gasoline.

Recognizing this, the Center for Investigative Reporting put together this video to follow a gallon of gasoline to illuminate the different cost streams being left out of the price on the sign.

This California Watch article explores some of these costs such as oil spills:

Some early estimates put the price of cleaning up the massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico at up to $20 billion. Every year, states spend more than $600 million to clean up leaking underground gasoline storage tanks.

Hmmm … at roughly 300 million barrels per year burned for light vehicle transportation, that is about $2 per barrel just for cleaning up underground gasoline storage tanks or perhaps five cents per gallon of gasoline sold not represented in the price on the pump.  And, well, that is a shadow of the implications of, for example, carbon emissions where a reasonable Social Cost of Carbon would represents easily 50 or more cents per gallon not on the price at the pump.  And, how many $1s, 10s, or $100s of billions each year of U.S. military costs results from America’s oil addiction and the need to maintain ‘stability’ in oil producing regions?

How about another angle?  As per the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (the ‘real cost of oil’)

Our dependency on oil from countries that are either politically unstable or at odds with the U.S. subjects the American economy to occasional supply disruptions, price hikes, and loss of wealth, which, according to a study commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy, have cost us more than $7 trillion present value dollars over the last 30 years. That is more than the cumulative cost of all of the wars fought by the U.S. since the Revolutionary War. The transfer of wealth to oil-producing countries – $1.16 trillion over the past thirty years – significantly increased our trade deficit. The Department of Energy estimates that each $1 billion of trade deficit costs America 27,000 jobs. Oil imports account for almost one-third of the total U.S. deficit and, hence, are a major contributor to unemployment.

No matter how you count the figures, any honest effort will show that the real cost of our oil addiction is orders of magnitude greater than the cost of the cure.

In any event, as the video concludes:

What is the true price of gas?  It’s a lot more than we pay at the pump.

Volkswagen has made noise with pretensions of being the greenest automaker.

Greenpeace UK has taken a look at Volkswagen’s claims and determined that those pretensions could just be noisy greenwashing.  Volkswagen—which has previously stated it wants to be ‘the most eco-friendly automaker in the world’—has seriously dark-sided views on fuel efficiency standards and CO2 emissions. These include:

• Spending millions of Euros every year funding lobby groups who are trying to stop Europe increasing its commitment to greenhouse gas reductions from 20% to 30% by 2020. Progressive companies – from Google to Ikea, Sony, Unilever and Philips – support the target. Volkswagen can’t afford to be left behind.
• A history of lobbying against the strong European efficiency standards that we need to kick our oil addiction.
• Not committing to maximum efficiency in all its car model. Only 6% of the cars it sold in 2010 were its most efficient models.

Or, perhaps, just as the core of Darth Vader contained a kernel of decency that required (serious) pressure to bring out, Volkswagen’s intent might be better than their current reality.  As Greenpeace put it:

“There is good in Volkswagen. We feel it… But it seems the bosses at Volkswagen have been seduced by the dark side of the Force and left us with little choice but to challenge them. But it’s not too late. There’s a chance that together we can turn Volkswagen away from the dark side and into a Force for good, leading to a brighter future for us all.”

Volkswagen, The Dark Side, website

There are many paths to improve people’s lives while helping to address our climate challenges.  Within all economic groups, more energy-efficient cooking is one of those paths: whether modern kitchens upgrading from inefficient cooktops to radiant systems or, far more profoundly, helping people reliant on burning wood (or dung or other biomass) to have more efficient (and less polluting) cooktops. 

That second category encompasses roughly half of humanity.  People whose health suffers from overexposure to smoke inhalation.  People whose lives suffer through the resources necessary to secure cooking biomass (whether time to gather the biomass or the money spent on that biomass).  And, by helping these people improve their health and reduce their cooking costs, we also can slow deforestration and tangibly reduce black soot and its contribution to Global Warming.

The Paradigm Project has a target: “to change 25 million lives by 2020” through the distribution of 5 million efficient stoves that should use roughly 40-60% less fuel.

Stoveman, a web show opens tomorrow documenting some of The Paradigm Projects trials, travails, and successes, will begin 28 June.

In their fundraising, The Paradigm Project asks for $40 for each stove.  What is the ROI on that $40?

• $56.58, per year, in average fuel cost savings or over $280 in five years
• Perhaps 260 hours a year less in wood gathering with over $100 in value in five years (assuming a $0.13 wage rate per hour)
• Emissions reductions of 1-2 tons/year
• In the range of 6.7 fewer trees cut down per year

These are significant paybacks that highlight that there are tremendous win-win-win opportunities across the global economic system when it comes to how Energy Smart practices can pay off in terms of improved economics, improved health, and reduced environmental impacts.

An example from Haiti,

A standard wage in Port-au-Prince (typically supporting a household of 5) is $5/day and the average family spends $1.25-$3 each day on charcoal. This may sound like a small amount of money for a culture that will spend this on coffee each morning, but this represents 25-60% of a household’s daily income. Reducing the burden of daily fuel use will make available more money for families to invest in their children’s education, food, or other basic goods that will fuel the recovery and advancement of the Haitians who have lost the most and are the most vulnerable on a daily basis.

In addition to the immediate economic burden to urban residents, the pattern of household charcoal consumption in Haiti is one of the main drivers of the egregious deforestation that turned the island from a tropical oasis into a desert in a mere 50 years.

The Paradigm Project has an admirable goal, seeking to improve the lives of millions through a private mobilization of assistance to improve cooking efficiency. 

This multiple win-win-win tool merits, however, being part of global development and poverty reduction assistance. And, the effort should encompass integrated cooking that includes solar cooking, heat-retention cookers, water purification systems, and biomass stoves. This combination offers the potential to multiply the benefits to perhaps 80-90 percent reduction in biomass requirements while also providing a tool for clean water for the world’s impoverished households.

NOTE:  I have not donated to The Paradigm Project … yet?  Other efforts to help address the biomass cooking challenge have been part of my contributions, such as Solar Household Energy. 

And, related, solar powered efficient lighting is another win-win-win opportunity in energy-short households.