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In my inbox this morning, an email from The Climate Capitalist promoting a debunking post The Six Great Climate Fictions. Putting aside whether these are the right “six great”, this otherwise thoughtful post is yet another example where reality-based thinkers, seeking to support accelerated moves to climate action, think like a scientist (rather than following Randy Olsen‘s advice to Don’t Be Such a Scientist) and approach debunking erroneous arguments in a counter-productive manner.

Making clear that myths are myths with factual arguments is, in many ways, quite straightforward. Someone claims the earth is flat. Using satellite images (including live feeds from the International Space Station), our own senses of how we see things over the horizon (top appears first) and the nature of lunar eclipses, astronomical observations (even, again, with our own eyes), and otherwise, the evidence has been beyond overwhelming for millennia that the earth is spherical, not flat. All well and good and pretty compelling it might seem for left-brained analytical thinkers. However, that isn’t reality as regurgitating facts to debunk myths, especially well-established myths, only goes so far. And, the 21st century, that isn’t so far as cognitive science has made abundantly clear that “facts don’t change minds“.

Thus, to boost effectiveness, myth busting requires a deliberative approach. One good place to start: The Debunking Handbook. Just six pages of text, straightforward, with clear and direct advice. One of the core points: emphasize truth, not the myth. This includes sandwiching myths with truth and avoiding other ways of overly calling attention to the myth (such as putting the myth in bold characters).

So, back to my inbox and the spark of this post. Regrettably, The Six Great Climate Fictions violates that core point by starting off with bolded myths. Take a quick look at and then look away from fiction #1 at the right. What do you recall? What are you likely to recall hours and days from now?

Again, without engaging whether these are the right or most significant climate fictions, here are two approaches to these six.

First, short form.

1. Nukes are NOT the Answer
2. Gas IS Dirty
3. What we do matters
4. Pumping more isn’t the solution
5. Climate catastrophes are already happening
6. It’s real and it matters despite what climate deniers say.

A longer (but not necessarily complete) variant.

1. Renewables continue to exceed expectations with nuclear power potentially less central to our future. Every forecast of renewable power (solar and wind) has been overly pessimistic for the past several decades. Deployments have been faster and prices lower than even the biggest proponents thought possible. Nuclear power, still the largest single zero-carbon power producing technology, has been the reverse. A promised nuclear revolution always appears to be around the corner, costs for new construction have been high, and maintaining current operating plants is becoming more challenging and expensive. While nuclear (small modular reactors (SMRs), new large plants, small fusion) might still turn the corner and open the door to new opportunities, new nuclear power is not a near-term answer to our energy and climate challenges.
2. Fossil fuels pollute throughout their life-cycle, from extraction to burning. Despite often successful industry efforts to confuse public discourse and inhibit moves to a cleaner economy, that fundamental truth remains. For example, proponents of a dirty economy used the false framing “clean natural gas”. Methane — typically called natural gas — might be somewhat less polluting than coal and oil but less polluting, less dirty doesn’t make clean. And, when it comes to climate chaos driving emissions, natural gas’ total lifecycle (from drilling to burning) is possibly even worse than coal due to methane releases and leaks.
3. The climate crisis is a global problem and requires global responses. The United States, historically, is the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) contributor and, per capita, is still roughly ten times the global average. China is now the largest polluter, as a country, but still only a third of the U.S. on a per capita basis. And, while massively investing in renewable energy, nuclear power, and other clean technology, China is still building coal power plants to meet rising electricity demand. Even with those new plants, China is on a path to peak and stark reducing its total pollution within a few years. While developing countries, such as China and India, are still seeing increased pollution, this gives neither excuse or reason for the United States to pursue dirtier energy options. If for nothing else, putting aside all the health benefits and reduced pollution, renewables are cheaper than new fossil fuel and the price advantage is increasing every day. To paraphrase Marie Antoinette, let them eat coal as we will eat clean and eat them up economically by doing so.
4. Plug in to boost energy resiliency, human health, and economic performance. With every passing day, the value streams of electrification across the economy are becoming both clearer and more achievable. While the United States has had a major turnaround in oil fortunes, with the Shale Revolution putting fears of Peak Oil aside for the indefinite future, a simple truth is that Americans are still burning more oil than is being produced in the country. Oil price economics put U.S. producers at the whim of Saudi Arabia and other cheap producers, with the potential of profitability undercut in a heartbeat (as happened in 2020). As electrification — along with rising understanding and pricing of climate costs — accelerates, it will be those cheap producers who remain on the market. The nation cannot and should not pursue a “drill, baby, drill” path as it is a road to climate and economic havoc. Instead, we should accelerate electrification and take control of our energy and economic destinies.
5. Climate catastrophes are all around us (the U.S), today. California fires, hurricanes devastating Florida and Houston, western droughts, 1,000 year floods, and other climate catastrophes are killing Americans and hurting the economy every year. For too long, people have mistakenly discussed climate change as a risk for “our grandchildren” when the havoc has already started hitting and costing us. And, it will get worse. What we have a choice about is whether we will act to reduce future pain and suffering — for us, our children, and our grandchildren(‘s children).
6. Climate change is real, the implications are serious, and its past time for truth to reign in our national and kitchen room discussion. The science is quite clear, with strong understanding for over a hundred years and key agreement for decades that humanity is driving climate change.