It wasn’t so long ago that one had to developed “fully burdened” analysis (considering climate impacts, social impacts, etc …) to justify powering up from the sun. Many thought it was a pipedream in late 2007 when Google started its RE<C (renewable energy less than coal) effort (which it left behind seven years later) to develop renewable energy power (electricity) that would cost less than new coal plants. As the Obama Administration Department of Energy team developed the SunShot program under Secretary Steven Chu, many (including some involved in the process) thought that its targeting of 5 cents per kilowatt hour industrial solar by 2020 was an irrationally aggressive goal which I had explained to me by DOE leadership, then, as “worthwhile to have a stretch goal even if we fall short”. Over the past decade, those lofty (and seemingly unachievable) goals have been blown away.
- Forget RE<C for new power plants, new wind and solar installations are proving less expensive at producing electricity than existing coal plants in market after market.
- SunShot’s original 2020 targets of utility solar at $1/watt installed and/or 5 cents/kWh delivered to grid were broken years ago.
The over 99 percent cost reduction in solar pricing over the past few decades was predicted by few and forecast by none (or, well, no major forecasting groups like EIA, IEA nor even research teams at environmental groups like Greenpeace).
Tired of dealing with dissections of errors and misdirection in the Jeff Gibbs written/directed & Michael Moore produced mockumentary (mockery of a documentary) Planet of the Humans, this post is taking a moment to bask in the bright note of just how the stunning price declines are continuing.
Just yesterday, Dubai announced a solar project that will deliver electricity at $13.50 per megawatt hour (or 1.35 cents per kilowatt hour).
With these sorts of near 1 cent per kilowatt hour electricity prices, there are a world of possibilities being opened that could drive significant shifts in the global economy:
- Shifting power-hungry manufacturing (aluminum …) to solar rich areas
- Moving off natural gas to electricity cracking water to make ammonia fertilizer
- Cheaper desalinization to provide water supplies for solar rich areas (including, at least, indoor agriculture)
- Accelerating moves to electrify everything as, with each plunge in solar prices, fossil fuels find it harder to compete on price (and can’t, in many domains, compete on quality already).
This $13.50 solar electricity price is just a data point but a data point among a mass of data showing that RE<C has already been achieved and is becoming an ever more powerful reality with every passing day.
A note about the moment
And, while Jeff Gibbs and Michael Moore deceive people with decade old solar data in the mockumentary (a mockery of a documentary) Planet of the Humans, in the real wold, solar (and wind and battery and …) prices are plunging and winning ground against fossil fools and fuels.