Looking back a decade, solar photovoltaiic (PV) prices were over 20 cents per kilowatt hour (kwh), uncertainty existed as to polysilicon pricing (one of the reasons why Solyndra, potentially, seemed to make sense if silicon prices wouldn’t drop), and the future seemed extremely bright for concentrated solar power (CSP) leveraging solar power for heat to drive turbines for electricity generation. With CSP electricity pricing in roughly 15 cents per kwh and prospects for driving pricing down, many energy analysts looking to a clean-energy future saw bright prospects for CSP. In the late 2000s (2009/2010), market analysts project global deployment of at least 40 gigawatts of CSP capacity by 2020.
In the interim, solar pv prices have plunged with some bids around the world falling below 2 cents/kwh while CSP prices fell less rapidly and less dramatically. Rather than being booming with 10s of gigawatts installed already, CSP global deployment is about five gigawatts of capacity and no one is projecting 40 gigawatts installed by (the end of 2020).
This rather dramatic change does not mean that CSP is ‘down and out’ but that its role in a clean energy future has — along with many other other players in moving to a prosperous, climate-friendly future — has changed.
CSP has several significant discriminators, to its advantage, compared to pv deployments. Heat storage is (relatively) cheap and thus CSP plants can operate through periods of shade in a day and can store heat for generating electricity when the sun is down. And, a CSP system can be associated with a traditional (whether gas turbine, biomass, or otherwise) thermal generation plant as an adjunct to ‘clean up’ the total electrons from the plant with a mix of traditional and solar heat driving the turbines.
Having looked somewhat intensively at CSP (both CSTP (concentrated thermal power) and CPV (concentrated pv)) roughly a decade ago and paid little attention since, I have thoughts (as per above) as to CSP’s status but really wonder the reality of the situation. For a variety of reasons, I’ll be able to test my thinking as an opportunity appeared to revisit the arena, learn the reality of CSP industry today, and gain perspective on its future from the industry’s leaders as I’ll be attending CSP Madrid in a few weeks (13-14 November specifically).
With leading figures from across the industry and across the globe, CSP Madrid offers a chance for ‘ground truth’ about this industry for considerations as to how it might fit in accelerating efforts to address climate change by cleaning up the electricity grid even as we see to ‘electrify everything’.
The agenda looks quite worthwhile (thus a detour to Madrid for the conference) with the following underlining this year’s conference:
“China and the Middle East will drive CSP into a new ear of cost reduction.”
If you’re interested in attending the conference, the organizers have offered a €200 discount if you register with discount code: Siegel-
Friend-200. Hope this interests you and to see you there.
2 responses so far ↓
1 Richard Mercer // Oct 29, 2018 at 9:28 pm
I have been very interested in the potential for CSP with heat storage.
Base load power day and night from the Sun? What’s not to like?
One thing that a study by the NREL made me aware of, is that the electricity from CSP with heat storage is valuable energy for utilities. So it should, in theory, command a higher price. I would think costs would come down, if the components of the systems were mass produced.
Also there are new materials being explored for both the heat storage medium and the materials used in the plumbing, heat exchangers. Some of these would make CSP more efficient, running at higher temperatures.
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NREL and the value to utilities
“Profit Maximization
Energy storage allows the plant operator to maximize profits. During periods of low hourly power prices, the operator can forgo generation and dump heat into storage; and at times of high prices, the plant can run at full capacity even without sun.
Peak Shaving
Solar generating capacity with heat storage can make other capacity in the market unnecessary. With heat storage the solar plant is able to ‘shave’ the peak load.
Reducing Intermittence
The ability of thermal solar plants to use heat energy storage to keep electric output constant: (1) reduces the cost associated with uncertainty surrounding power production; and (2) relieves concerns regarding electrical interconnection fees, regulation service charges, and transmission tariffs.
Increasing Plant Utilization
Solar plants equipped with heat storage have the ability to increase overall annual generation levels by ‘spreading out’ solar radiation to better match plant capacity.”
http://www.nrel.gov/csp/troughnet/pdfs/owens_storage_value.pdf
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They are also more flexible than nuclear or coal plants, responding to demand in the grid, better to help integrate intermittent PV and Wind into the grid
2 John Egan // Nov 3, 2018 at 10:40 am
Freezing people will vote for Trump.
Likewise, people whose bills have surged.
Or for Le Pen or for the AfD.
Despite what you and others have said about costs, wind & solar have driven up costs dramatically in places that have adopted a fast-track program.
“Great Britain posted its lowest ever share of fossil fuels this past third quarter, according to a new report from UK-based energy analysts EnAppSys, accounting for only 41% of total generation.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/15/great-britain-records-lowest-fossil-fuel-share-of-energy-mix/
“Our own research has highlighted that four in 10 pensioner couples find it difficult to pay their energy bills and this rises to six in 10 pensioners who live alone. … The staggering number of extra deaths last winter have highlighted just how serious this can be.”
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17198876.rising-energy-poverty-sparks-fears-of-a-winter-health-crisis/?ref=ebln