Simply, the declarative U.S. policy can be summarized as targeting global warming as remaining below a two degree centigrade (2C) warming above pre-industrial areas.
Figure 4-1 on page 32 is a reproduction of an EIA chart of energy-related carbon emissions. As with fossil fuels, this graphic shows a dramatic decline in emissions compared to what was forecast. In 2005, as you can see to the right, the EIA forecast essentially a steady upward path for US emissions. 2013 emissions were, in fact, roughly 30 percent lower than what EIA predicted just eight years earlier. And, the 2014 projection is essentially a flatline stability from now into the future.
The baseline path is computed using a combination of historical trends and published forecasts as of 2005. Relative to this baseline, slightly more than half of the decline is due to slower growth than projected in 2005, that is, because of the decline in economic activity as a result of the Great Recession. Slightly less than half the reduction is due to cleaner energy, primarily the reduction in electricity generated by coal and the increase in cleaner natural gas and zero-emissions wind and solar generation. Improvements in energy efficiency made a small contribution: although economy-wide efficiency improved over this period, it improved only slightly faster than the rate projected by the Energy Information Administration in 2005.
The EIA got the ghg emissions path as wrong as it did the fossil fuel projects. However, with all the focus on climate-change issues (and tomorrow’s projected release of EPA carbon rules for power plants), this issue is buried on page 32 without a serious discussion as to the implications.
The 2005 forecast pointed to roughly 8 billion tons of emissions in 2030 while the 2014 projection is for under 5.5. That is good news … perhaps. With the ‘flat line, those energy related emissions are roughly projected to be 5.5 billion metric tons in 2040.
A simple question to ask. Is this anything close to what is required?
The International Energy Agency recently released a report that models what is required globally and within individual countries to meet temperature targets of 2C, 4C, and 6C. There is a very interesting graphical interface that enables looking at the IEA work from a number of angles. Click on the “emissions reductions” and then “United States”, we can then see where the IEA projects the United States has to go as part of a global emissions profile for a 2 degree, 4 degree, or 6 degree centigrade temperature increase. As a reminder, the globally ‘accepted’ target by the international community: 2 degree temperature increase from levels prior to the industrial revolution. From the IEA work, the US emissions have to be below 2B tons by 2040 and down to 1.1 by 2050 for some confidence of a 2 degree path. The EIA’s 5.5B ton emission path? That is right in line with 6 degrees.
At 1 degree Celsius, most coral reefs and many mountain glaciers will be lost. A 3-degree rise would spell the collapse of the Amazon rainforest, disappearance of Greenland’s ice sheet, and the creation of deserts across the Midwestern United States and southern Africa. A 6-degree increase would eliminate most life on Earth, including much of humanity.
And, the EIA’s baseline case projection of US emissions assumes a 6 degree increase. In technical terms, OH SHIT!
Thus, returning to the simple question, a simple answer: No, this is not close to what is required.
The White House staff evidently recognizes this issue. From the report:
This analysis of the recent reduction in emissions shows that while progress has been made, much more remains to be done.
But that is it … no serious acknowledgment that the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration’s baseline scenario assumes a 6 degree C future or, as some more expert than I might put it, utterly catastrophic climate chaos.
Should climate catastrophe catastrophe be our baseline scenario?
Shouldn’t this issue merit more serious examination.
NOTE: And, if the EIA’s projections on fossil fuels, renewable energy, and greenhouse gas emissions have proven so off from the past, shouldn’t the Administration take a serious look at why this is the case and what might be possible to either the forecasting structure. In government and industry, the EIA data and forecasts are taken as ‘gospel’ and serve to undermine investment decisions with decades-long implications. If the projections cannot, on a regular basis, be reliably counted on for projections, how can and should we restructure the reporting to better inform decision-making requirements both within government and outside it?
Weirdly, while spending many pages detailing how the Energy Information Agency (EIA) failed to predict accurately fossil fuel trends, the report’s authors failed to highlight that the real-world performance of renewable energy (notably wind and solar) has greatly outperformed baseline forecasts. With the President’s call for more solar energy, highlighting that renewables have been doing so well (in price reductions and speed of market penetration) would seem something strongly support of Administration objectives rather than for something to be ignored in a 42-page White House report.
Amid its 42 pages, there is one element that has already received much attention: a set of graphics highlighting how poor the Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting has been on fossil fuel (natural gas and oil) production and US oil demand. The graphic on net imports is one example (see here, here and here for more) of ‘getting it wrong’. The combination of reduced domestic demand and increased production combined for this dramatic reduction in net imports. The shifts from 2006 are from a mix of policy decisions, technological advances, business developments, economic conditions, and societal change.
Policy decisions have been driving improved efficiency (automobile fuel efficiency standards, building efficiency to reduce oil heating, etc …) along with enabling increased oil production.
Technological improvements in oil extraction (fracking) have increased production while efficiency measures have driven down demand. Efficiency measures are well beyond ‘just’ improved auto fuel efficiency, but also include increased leveraging of information technology to find more efficient routing of transportation (everything from routing UPS trucks to GPS helping individuals avoid traffic) and to even reduce transit requirements.
Business developments fosteringlower demand include the above mentioned efficient management to increased internet sales to …
Poor economic performance drove down demand while continued high global (and US) fuel prices favor conservation, efficiency and substitution.
Societal shifts include increase social interactions over the internet (gaming,
otherwise) lowering social driving and delayed/reduced securing of drivers’ licenses.
Thus, there are many reasons for the EIA forecasts to have been off by so much. Truly, energy forecasting is a difficult business (excellent discussion here). Going back decades, such ‘errors’ in forecasting would emerge across the board — with a fluctuating from what might be conceived of as over optimistic to overly pessimistic forecasts. Thus, the material in the White House report as to reality not conforming to forecasting when it comes to fossil fuel production and demand is not at all surprising.
What is absent, however, from the White House report’s extensive discussion of forecasting is a discussion of renewable energy. While there have been problems in EIA forecasting when it comes to fossil fuels, a reasonable evaluation of renewable energy forecasting might term it a ‘horrific’ record. Here is material from a 2013 discussion by Lowell Feld, a former EIA employee, EIA Renewable Energy Forecast Isn’t Just Wrong, It’s Wildly, Laughably Too Low:
In 2005, EIA forecast that U.S. solar power capacity would hit about 1.2 GW in 2013. Where are we right now? According to Greentech Media, the U.S. is closing in (if it already hasn’t passed) the 10 GW mark in solar PV capacity right about now, and that’s not even counting solar thermal power generating capacity (according to this article, you can add another 1 GW or so of U.S. solar thermal power capacity). In sum, EIA forecast 1.2 GW of U.S. solar power capacity in 2013; the actual figure is around 11 GW – nearly 10 times higher than EIA forecast!
In 2005, EIA forecast that U.S. wind power capacity would reach about 9 gigawatts (GW) in 2013. Where, in fact, are we right now? According to theAmerican Wind Energy Association (AWEA), installed U.S. wind power capacity at the end of 2012 was 60 GW. Quick math: EIA’s forecast of 9 GW compared to an actual 60 GW? That’s off by a factor of nearly 7!
We could go on and on with this, but you get the picture: EIA has basically ZERO ability to forecast long-term energy trends even close to correctly.Let me emphasize: it’s not that EIA is off by a just a bit; they’re off by orders of magnitude.In that context, let’s look at their latest long-term “forecasts” for renewable energy.
According to Table A16 (“Renewable energy generating capacity and generation”) in EIA’s latest long-term forecast, the agency expects wind power generation capacity to increase from 59 GW in 2012 to 76 GW in 2020 and 85 GW in 2040. That may seem like a lot, but it’s only an increase of 26 GW over the next 27 years or so. To put it another way, that’s about 1 GW of additional wind power per year through 2040, or total growth of just 44% during those 27 years. Put it this way: EIA must know something that billionaire investor Warren Buffett, who just ordered more than 1 GW of wind turbines (at a cost of $1 billion) doesn’t know. I’d also note that U.S. wind power generating capacity grew 33-fold over the past 15 years (from 1.78 GW in 1997 to 59 GW in 2012). Just between 2007 and 2012, U.S. wind power generating capacity grew nearly four-fold (from 16 GW to 59 GW). Yet we’re supposed to believe that U.S. wind power generating capacity will grow by only 44% over the next 27 years? If you believe that…well, I’ve got a nice, brand-spanking-new coal-fired power plant to sell you! LOL
As for U.S. solar power (including solar PV and solar thermal), EIA forecasts that it will reach about 66 GW in 2040, compared to about 10 GW in 2012. That seems like impressive growth (a 6-fold increase over the next 27 years), except when you consider that solar has grown from just 0.35 GW in 1997 — a 28 fold increase over the past 15 years. I’d also point to the latest Greentech Media short-term forecast for U.S. solar PV installation, which indicates a rapid acceleration in solar PV additions over the next few years (4+ GW in 2013, 5.5 GW in 2014, nearly 8 GW in 2015, and over 9 GW in 2016). That growth alone adds up to nearly 27 GW of solar, just by 2016, with the growth curve accelerating upwards.
Again, the United States is already at nearly 15 GW of solar. And, if the first quarter solar pv installations (without even the concentrating solar projects) continue on pace through the year (even though it is on a rapid acceleration path), the United States will see about 5.4 gigawatts of PV installations or over 30% more than what Greentech predicted just 18 months ago.
Earlier this year, a group of CleanTechnica readers worked together to prepare/send a serious letter to Ernest Moniz, Secretary of Energy, about this. The (well worth reading) letter’s url title horrible EIA forecasts:
the EIA has made thousands of forecasts in the past which never seem to be publicly visited again, for example in the 2010 AEO it was forecast that we would reach 0.45 GW of solar PV on the grid by 2035, in November 2013 we reached 7.11 GW according to the FERC.
PV Solar installations stop in 2016 and do not resume for 12 years and even then at a rate significantly below current rates.
Surely, in making new predictions it would be appropriate for the EIA to address how their models could produce a 25 year forecast which has already been surpassed 16 times over in less than 3 years.
Again, energy forecasting is a difficult business.
The White House is right — EIA got it wrong (for lots of reasons) when it came to forecasting polluting energy’s future path.
However, EIA has been (very consistently) getting it wrong to a much greater extent and in a consistently negative way when it comes to valuing energy efficiency and renewable energy (EE/RE).
If the White House report were truly about a “sustainable economic growth,” then the EE/RE problems merited highlighting and serious discussion as well.
What are we to make of this fire? After all, fires occur in nature and Alaska has had its share in the past. As Larry Lazar put it in an email to me,
While the size of the fire on Alaska’s Kenai Peninsula is not particularly unusual, it is very early in the season. This type of fire usually occurs from July-September, not May. With the lack of snow last “winter” and the very dry spring (no rain in ~month), this fire was just a matter of time. I wonder what the rest of the summer will be like?
Whenever I read about these large and out of season forest fires, I can’t help but think of what it will be like in 30-50 years or longer. So much for Alaska being a climate refuge.
As for that comment, about “climate refuge”, the reality is that nowhere will be spared the climate chaos’ impacts in terms of an ability to maintain modern human civilization. Even if an area might be (relatively) somewhat unscathed by direct impacts, catastrophic climate change will reduce the global economy’s ability to deliver up everything from sophisticated electronics to pasta. (As to that last, the occasional tv watching a few years ago had me flipped the channels to a discussion of the global industrial machine behind delivering a box of pasta to the supermarket counter. Rather daunting the system-of-systems involved from the farms to the industrial machines for processing pasta to the international transport/logistics system.)
In any event, what is notable is not ‘an’ unusual weather event (earlier large Alaska fire than typically occurs), but how this is part and parcel of an increasing reality of ‘unusual’ weather incidents. Just a few from recent weeks …
California wild fires: “It is pretty amazing to see these in May,” said San Diego Fire Chief Javier Mainar. “We certainly have seen climate change and the impact of climate change. My understanding from Cal Fire is that we’ve seen twice the number of wildfire starts in the state of California as we typically see this time of year.”
Balkan floods: Not only did this massive flooding displace large numbers of people, cause economic damage, and create opportunities for dramatic photos (like animals being fed on rooftops), it created yet another new climate change impact: uncovering of 10,000s of land mines from the wars of the Yugoslavia breakup (mainly Bosnia but also Kosovo) with new risks for the population as ‘identified’ minefields are now scattered through the countryside.
Unlike Russia, Sarah Palin likely could to see the smoke from the Kenai Peninsula wildfire from a Wasilla porch. Even as Alaska experiences a significant warming climate, with dramatic effects on Alaska and Alaskans (including curtailing Todd “My Guy” Palin’s hobby), it seems even more likely that Sarah Palin will not be able to recognize how that smoke is signaling mounting climate change impacts.
Photo credit: Dan Logan (note, photo is from 2010, not the current Kenai Peninsula fire) and NASA of
Kahn discussed three drivers for India’s agricultural technology startup revolution:
Demand Growing: With increasing wealth, India’s diet is changing — more fruits, vegetables, and meats. This trend will continue in India and throughout Asia.
Supply Constraints: India’s agricultural supply is tight and will worsen under business as usual. There are “multiple bottlenecks” limiting food production.
Land is disappearing (urbanization) and degrading.
Water quality and supply is worsening.
Labor costs are skyrocketing.
Ecosystem is right:
Human capital of IT, biotech, pharma, etc; technical & managerial talent base.
Research capital with many universities and research institutions with relevant people and programs.
Business base and examples as India has a strong domestic agribusiness built up supporting small Indian farmers and
Moving past this, Kahn explained why he sees India as the best laboratory for small-scale agriculture:
The Indian sub-continent has every single agricultural climate zone found around the world.
Indian farming is small — there are not the large farms that dominate Iowa, Russia, and Australia.
India’s challenges are the global small-holder challenges: limited capital (frugal and durable engineering), small-scale mechanization and lean information technology.
The Indian market is large, big enough to sustain development of new technologies and innovative approaches to then export around the world.
These coalesce to make India unique. Unlike India, for example, China has not built up a branded agricultural export industry and, as Kahn put it gently in an interview, “Chinese internal agriculture is shit.” Other small-holder dominated nations do not have India’s human-capital base. Thus, for true innovation in small-scale farming technology, we should look to and invest in India.
Kahn provided these six key characteristics for Ag 3.0 at play in India and with relevance globally for small-scale farming:
Mechanization & Automation
Supply chain modernization:
Innovative food products:
Kahn’s presentation simply made sense — it clicked as a logical way to look at the situation, opening my (and others’) eyes as to how to look at a path forward for agriculture in the 21st century.
And, amid valid and serious reasons for concerns over mounting climate chaos, Kahn laid a plausible case to see why, rather than starve, India will innovate to take a leading position in creating the Agriculture 3.0 revolution.
Energy poverty is one of the world’s greatest challenges. There are billions of people without access to reliable and reasonably priced electricity. In India, alone, there are some 400 million people in energy poverty. The new Indian government has set a major initiative to change this situation radically and rapidly: “to harness solar power to enable every home to run at least one light bulb by 2019″.
“We look upon solar as having the potential to completely transform the way we look at the energy space,” said Narendra Taneja, convener of the energy division at Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party
This has the potential to change radically the situation throughout India. Access to even a few hours of light, for example, has had a major impact on the status of women as the lighting enables children to do their homework. A few hours of the lighting will equate to adding years of education to the poorest of Indians.
The markets are already assessing the implications. India’s electricity system is cumbersome, inefficient, and heavily dependent on coal imports. If the new government follows through on its promise, with renewable energy a cornerstone of its energy policy, expectations of increased coal exports might turn into a chimera. As discussed at RENewEconomy,
As far back as mid-2012, signs were already emerging that a rebirth in the development Australian coal infrastructure was masking huge problems in the Indian energy market, such as poor supply and pipeline infrastructure and the increasingly unviable cost of coal imports.
And as recently as January, leading investment bank HSBC warned that the market value of the coal assets owned by Australia’s biggest mining groups could be slashed by nearly half – or more than $US20 billion – due to constraints of the global “carbon budget;” a concept HSBC says is gaining traction, given the climate science, and the implementation of pollution control policies in the US and China.
Now, India’s ambitious new five-year solar lighting goal further subtracts from the much diminished future coal equation.
About 400 million people in India lack access to electricity, more than the combined population of the U.S. and Canada. The outgoing government led by Prime MinisterManmohan Singh missed a 2012 target to provide electricity to all households.
Each spring, millions of Americans at 1,000s of High Schools and Universities sit through commencement speeches. While many are filled with overused cliches and serve only as a speed bump en route post graduation parties, others represent mind-changing moments that “are truly worth remembering, or so well-said that they stick in the memory longer than just about anything else” with language worth returning to time and time again. Paul Hawkens’ is such a speech, framing our environmental challenges in a way direct relevant to the life choices of the students who were sitting before him.
You are going to have to figure out what it means to be a human being on earth at a time when every living system is declining, and the rate of decline is accelerating. Kind of a mind-boggling situation… but not one peer-reviewed paper published in the last thirty years can refute that statement. Basically, civilization needs a new operating system, you are the programmers, and we need it within a few decades.
Politicians are standard on the commencement rounds, typically providing pablum rather than substance. Sometimes, a politician takes a commencement speech to make a statement of fundamental importance, to move past photo opportunity to political leadership. Such is the case with Governor Deval Patrick’s 9 May speech at the University of Massachusetts (extracts after the fold).
Patrick opened with his perspective that education is about something greater than securing a job and that the graduates would put something central to their desires for the future: “above all I hope you will choose to be good citizens.”
your education here at UMass is about more than preparation for being good employees. It is about preparation for citizenship itself.
Good citizens take an interest in people and issues outside themselves. They understand community, in the sense of seeing their stake in their neighbors’ dreams and struggles as well as their own. They inform themselves about what’s happening in their community. They volunteer. They listen. They take the long view. They vote.
Good citizens don’t just live and work in a community. They build community.
With that in mind, Patrick laid out what is the greatest challenge today for being able to “build community”:
no policy choice before this community, this Commonwealth and this Nation is more emblematic than climate change.
After discussing climate science (highlighting the just released National Climate Assessment, 2014) and laying out Massachusetts’ progress in energy efficiency, clean energy, and climate mitigation/adaptation, Patrick laid out what we need from energy policy:
the time has come to set a new standard that ensures that, at every point in time, at every moment, we are getting the cleanest energy possible. It means energy efficiency first. It means zero-emission electricity next – solar, wind, and hydro. It means lower-emission electricity last – natural gas, an imperfect choice but best of the fossil fuels. And it means high-emissions sources never.
We should not be gleefully pursuing and celebrating an “All-of-the-Above” energy policy, which fosters continued investment in dirty energy sources along with moves toward clean energy, but must prioritize throughout our economy and our policy moves toward a cleaner energy system.
This is what we call a “clean energy standard,” and we should set one for our state that puts us on a path to reduce our emissions by fully 80 percent by mid-century. It’s not the ideal today, but it will get us there tomorrow. It’s how we move from good to better to best.
Patrick is laying out that ‘prioritizing’ clean over dirty isn’t perfection, isn’t “best”, but provides a path toward “best”.
What’s the best?
The best is a future free of fossil fuels.
Has a governor ever before made such a direct call for entirely getting off fossil fuels?
In a sentence, what is that “best …future”:
It’s an economy driven by homegrown, independent sources of renewable energy, cutting edge technology, and hyper-efficient cars and buildings.
This provides a positive and optimistic vision — that we can address climate change with leveraging our capacity for innovation with clean energy and efficiency throughout the economy.
It’s a future within our grasp.
While every day makes the climate crisis worse,
We don’t have to wait for disaster:
the Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stone,
but because humankind imagined a better way and then reached for it.
Climate change, resulting in more frost-free days and warmer seasonal air temperatures, can contribute to shifts in flowering time and pollen initiation from allergenic plant species, and increased CO2 by itself can elevate production of plant-based allergens.,,,,,, Higher pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons can increase allergic sensitizations and asthma episodes,,,, and diminish productive work and school days.,,
Simultaneous exposure to toxic air pollutants can worsen allergic responses.,,, Extreme rainfall and rising temperatures can also foster indoor air quality problems, including the growth of indoor fungi and molds, with increases in respiratory and asthma-related conditions.,,, Asthma prevalence (the percentage of people who have ever been diagnosed with asthma and still have asthma) increased nationwide from 7.3% in 2001 to 8.4% in 2010. Asthma visits in primary care settings, emergency room visits, and hospitalizations were all stable from 2001 to 2009, and asthma death rates per 1,000 persons with asthma declined from 2001 to 2009. To the extent that increased pollen exposures occur, patients and their physicians will face increased challenges in maintaining adequate asthma control.
As per the National Wildlife Foundation’s Extreme Allergies and Global Warming from several years ago, the NCA starkly lays out the facts: global warming is making and will make conditions worse for allergy sufferers. In fact, while global warming has almost certainly already made allergy conditions worse, we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg so far.
Ragweed will worsen … fungal pollution … tree pollen … Oh, of course, poison ivy gets worse in a warming world, with a more allergic form of urushiol being produced, with faster growth, over a longer portion of the year.
Considering this leads to some inescapable conclusions: time to stock on Benadryl and time to consider buying some drug company stocks, since could be of greater value in a higher CO2 levels, warming world …
The United States economy loses some $11.2 billion in medical costs and some $700 million in lost productivity per year to hay fever suffering each year. What will be the Global Warming multiplier?
The U.S. economy loses over 14 million school days, over 14 million work days, over $15 billion in medical costs and over $5 billion in lost earnings a year due to asthma. What will be the Global Warming multiplier?
At this time, US television screens are graced with several blockbuster science programs. Showtime’s The Years of Living Dangerously provides serious and substantive looks at climate change. With Cosmos, hosted by Neil deGrasse Tyson, NewsCorp is giving thinking people a substantive reason to tune in every Sunday evening. “Cosmos aims to be a primer on the incredible grandeur of the world around us, lionizing the scientists that have made our greatest discoveries, and hopefully stoking the fires for education and learning in the process.” If we think about the political demographic associated with Fox News, Cosmos’ calm, rather, and thoughtful scientific-based take on the history of Earth (no, not 6000 years), evolution (yes, it happens), and climate change (not that word) might appear shocking.
As to the last, Cosmos’ discussion to date has been relatively muted — certainly not a central focus — but yesterday’s show changed that equation.
We just can’t seem to stop burning up all those buried trees from way back in the carboniferous age, in the form of coal, and the remains of ancient plankton, in the form of oil and gas.
If we could, we’d be home free climate wise.
Instead, we’re dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere at a rate the Earth hasn’t seen since the great climate catastrophes of the past, the ones that led to mass extinctions.
We just can’t seem to break our addiction to the kinds of fuel that will bring back a climate last seen by the dinosaurs, a climate that will drown our coastal cities and wreak havoc on the environment and our ability to feed ourselves.
All the while, the glorious sun pours immaculate free energy down upon us, more than we will ever need.
Why can’t we summon the ingenuity and courage of the generations that came before us?
The dinosaurs never saw that asteroid coming.
In his calm sonorous voice, Tyson asks a profound question
“What’s our excuse?”
Tip of the hat to Chris Mooney (see that discussion, which has links to other excellent discussions about and with Tyson).
Around the planet, difficult cultural norms exist for writing. Avoidance of direct discussion and attribution seem to be the norm for many nations. Over recent decades, the U.S. business world has adopted an emphasis on using more direct language with the active voice. When it comes to passive voices, a standard recommendation:
Use the passive voice sparingly.
It may make the writing unclear by keeping the identity of the actor secret.
As to when you should use passive voice,
Usually use passive voice when you do not know the actor, you want to hide the identity of the actor, or the actor is not important to the meaning of the sentence.
With this in mind, I read the opening to Richard Tol’s letter to the Journal of Economic Perspectives providing a set of corrections to an earlier article that asserts, in essence, that economic modeling provides uncertainty as to whether climate change will have a net negative or positive impact in coming decades. The following is the abstract as well as opening paragraph for this five-page letter.
Tol, Richard S J. 2014. “Correction and Update: The Economic Effects of Climate Change.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2): 221-26.DOI: 10.1257/jep.28.2.221
Gremlins intervened in the preparation of my paper “The Economic Effects of Climate Change” published in the Spring 2009 issue of this journal. In Table 1 of that paper, titled “Estimates of the Welfare Impact of Climate Change,” minus signs were dropped from the two impact estimates, one by Plambeck and Hope (1996) and one by Hope (2006). In Figure 1 of that paper, titled “Fourteen Estimates of the Global Economic Impact of Climate Change,” and in the various analyses that support that figure, the minus sign was dropped from only one of the two estimates. The corresponding Table 1 and Figure 1 presented here correct these errors. Figure 2 titled,”Twenty-One Estimates of the Global Economic Impact of Climate Change” adds two overlooked estimates from before the time of the original 2009 paper and five more recent ones.
“minus signs were dropped … minus sign was dropped”.
Who dropped those minus signs and “overlooked estimates”. Evidently, those unnamed and nefarious “gremlins” who ”intervened” to undermine the quality of Professor Tol’s research and publications.
Using the passive voice makes one wonder whether editors, research assistants, technical glitches, or Professor Tol, himself, were the “gremlins” who “intervened”.
As to the substance of the correction, Tol first writes;
The parameters of the impact curves are not statistically significantly different from one another
In essence, this phrase says ‘okay, item corrected, but it has no substantive import’.
That “not statistically different”, as Professor Tol explains, is driven by the relative paucity of data sets which drive wide error bars and thus require extreme shifts for “statistically significant” change.
Let us remember that Richard Tol is perhaps the leading voice assessing that climate change’s economic impact could well (or even is likely to) be a net positive and that climate mitigation with an impact, therefore, could actually hurt the economy. With that in mind, this comes from later in the letter.
First, unlike the original curve (Tol 2009, Figure 1) in which there were net benefits of climate change associated with warming below about 2°C, in the corrected and updated curve (Figure 2), impacts are always negative
When it comes to the economic analysis of climate change impacts in the coming decades, Professor Tol writes, “impacts are always negative”.
Note, on the substance of this correction, please see And then there’s Physics. “What’s maybe more interesting, is that Tol updates the analysis by including 7 newer studies. … With the new studies included, there is essentially no positive benefit for future warming. This seems like quite a significant change …”
Today, there is an all day event at the White House on solar power, both announcing a series of initiatives and honoring “solar champions” from around the nation (full press release after the fold). These champions are representative of leaders in technological change, drivers for policy change, and people working ‘in the grassroots’ to get solar on the rooftops of disadvantaged citizens across the country. As to initiatives, they include several interesting ones:
Department of Energy funding to support state, tribal, and local planning for tackling barriers to cost-competitive solar deployment. As solar technology prices continue to plunge, “soft” costs (planning, financing, inspection, sales, etc …) are also falling — but at a much slower rate which means that they are, with each passing day, a greater percentage of the total costs.
Energy Department SunShot and NREL staff/technical support to assist in accelerating solar installations at Federally-assisted housing.
EPA issuance of an “on-site renewables challenge” to prod businesses (Green Power partners) around the nation to put renewables (including solar) at their actual facilities rather than ’simply’ buying clean energy credits.
Energy Department coming issuance of a “Solar Deployment Playbook”, which is aimed to ease internal ’soft costs’ as to decision-making and understanding within business as to why and how to do solar installations.
Capital Solar Challenge: The Administration is targeting solar power at Federal facilities in Washington, DC, as part of an effort “to lead by example”.
Military Solar Deployment: The White House is reaffirming the military commitment to solar deployments. Note that the WH press release emphasizes the Army. Last week, at the Sea-Air Space Symposium, Navy leaders mentioned that the Secretary of the Navy ordered far more aggressive action on putting solar up at Navy and Marine Corps facilities.
Many of the above are ‘leading by example’. Since this is a live, online event, the White House is taking questions via twitter using #WHChamps and #ActOnClimate. My first question refers back to a painful issue: