Get Energy Smart! NOW!

There are several legislative initiatives to lay down a path forward to modernize Virginia’s electrical grid with co-benefits of boosting the Commonwealth’s economic performance, creating jobs, reducing environmental injustice, improving health (economic, environmental, human), and putting Virginia on a path to address meaningfully the Commonwealth’s climate impacts. These initiatives do not align in many ways (from stances on new fossil fuel infrastructure to energy efficiency targets to …) with a clear discordance when it comes to timelines for achieving a clean energy future.

• The Virginia Green New Deal Virginia‘s key legislation introduced by Rep. Sam Rasoul (HB77) “mandates … retail electric suppliers in Virginia to generate 80% of electricity from “clean energy” resources by 2028 and 100% by 2036″.
• The Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) (note: announced but legislation not released/introduced) targets 60 percent clean electrons by 2036 and 100% by 2050.

The difference between these two targets is greater than the above suggests most notably due to nuclear power which currently provides about one-third of Virginia’s electricity production and the vast majority of non-fossil fuel electricity production.

• HB77 explicitly defines “clean energy’ as renewable and/or energy efficiency measures.

“Clean energy” means energy efficiency, energy conservation, demand response, energy storage, and energy derived from solar, onshore wind, offshore wind, geothermal, and ocean tidal sources.

• The Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) targets a “carbon-free electricity grid” and thus appears to include nuclear power within its targets. (For example, as per the AEE supporting study‘s roadmapping of ‘carbon-free’ generation out to 2050.)

For those getting confused, it is understandable. Writ large, for climate/energy analysts, there is a relatively simple differentiation: “clean” refers to (near) zero-carbon (thus including nuclear) while “renewable” explicitly excludes nuclear. There are areas which can be disputed as to whether ‘renewable’ or ‘low-carbon’ or not that are part of the electricity grid but which HB77 excludes (biomass, coal-bed methane, land-fill methane, land-fill incineration) and which VCEA may or may not include. These areas are, at this time, about eight percent of Virginia’s electricity supply.

If both (nuclear + miscellaneous other) are included in the VCEA while HB77 excludes them, this means some 35-40 percent of Virginia’s electricity that VCEA counts, already, as clean while HB77’s definition is starting off with just a few percent (essentially solar installations) as clean. In other words, HB77 is far, far more ambitious than the VCEA when it comes to moving Virginia to a renewable energy electricity grid.

As a quick side note, as someone focused on the intersection of climate, energy, environmental justice, security, business and economy, my starting point is “clean” as priority: drive down carbon emissions (along with associated pollution from burning fossil fuels) as quickly as possible while maximizing the economic, social, environmental, and security co-benefits from doing so (targeting a secure and prosperous climate-friendly society).

With the above in mind, struggling to make sense of the potential paths forward to make (as per Governor McAuliffe’s assertion several years ago) “Virginia #1 on climate”, some quick thoughts as to how fast and how Virginia could achieve a carbon-free electricity grid with some quick (appropriate for back-of-the-envelope discussion) assumptions:

• Aggressive moves to “electrify everything” (moves to end fossil-fuel reliance in other sectors, such as committing to 100% electric school buses (both public and private) across the Commonwealth by 2030) and economic growth will boost electricity demand but that will roughly balance out with efficiency measures (remembering that Virginia trails the pack, nationwide, re efficiency) to leave total Commonwealth electricity demand ball-park where it is today for the indefinite future.
• Virginia will maintain (safely) its existing nuclear fleet through 2050 but that, at this time, significant increases in nuclear generation capacity (whether due to a new large plant, emergence of fusion (small or large) as an option, or use of small modular reactors) cannot be relied upon (but should not be ruled out). In 2018, nuclear provided 31 percent of Virginia’s net electricity power generation and, thus, will be assumed to do so through 2050.
• Existing clean renewables (hydropower, solar) will be summarized as meeting about one-to-two percent of existing demand (in 2017, solar produced 443 gigawatt hours (about 0.33% of total demand) and there have been many installations since then; hydro is about 0.5% of Virginia electricity production).
• Already announced Dominion plans for 2.6 gigawatts of offshore wind (roughly meeting 10 percent of Virginia electricity demand by 2026) and 2.5 gigawatts of industrial-scale solar (about 5 percent of electricity demand) along with perhaps 500 megawatts of other solar projects (perhaps 1 percent) are taken as part of ‘business as usual’ (BAU) for future planning.

Taking the above as given, by roughly 2026, about 45 percent of Virginia’s electricity will be from carbon-free sources. Thus, the question:

How and how fast
can Virginia create a carbon-emissions free electricity system
while meeting other requirements and securing other benefit streams (resiliency, environmental justice, economic benefits, …)?

One place to look for potential roadmapping is the Stanford-based Solutions Project, which is roadmapping paths to 100% WWS (Wind, Water, Solar) energy systems (that includes electrifying across the economy — industry, transportation, heating…). For Virginia (pdf), they propose a 2050 mix of 60% wind (50% offshore, 10% onshore), 38% solar, and 2% a mix of water (traditional hydropower, tidal, wave). For the offshore, this could imply perhaps 25-35 gigawatts of offshore wind production capacity.

Earlier this fall, Governor Northam announced a target of 30 percent renewable electricity by 2030. That target would combine with the nuclear power production for 60% “carbon-free” electricity. Existing solar and wind projects and plans get Virginia half-way to Northam’s targets. Here are some thoughts to meet and exceed the other half within the next decade.

• Offshore Wind: The French government, due to finding offshore wind prices to be plummeting far faster than expected, has increased its acquisition plans to 1 gw per year. Looking to Dominion’s 2.6GW plan for full installation by 2026 with over 500GW/per year in construction, Virginia could create an industrial path for building 1GW (or more) per year (while creating huge economic benefits for the Hampton Roads area as it becomes the centerpiece for offshore wind projects construction and operations along the Atlantic Coast). Thus, target offshore wind:
  • 2030: 6GW of offshore wind (more than 25% of total electricity demand)
  • 2035: 11GW of offshore wind (more than 40%)
  • 2040: 16+GW of offshore wind
• Onshore Wind: Especially south-west Virginia, the Commonwealth has some interesting niches (think winds concentrated in a valley) of good-quality wind resources. While a number of projects have been proposed for development, Virginia doesn’t yet have any meaningful onshore wind in operations … but it could in the near future (such as 75MW from Rocky Forge as soon as 2021 with Pinewood’s 150MW potentially operational in 2022). Target of 500 megawatts of onshore wind (with, to make things interesting and create more value for the grid and local communities, tens of gigawatt hours of underground constructed pumped hydropower storage) by 2030 would provide perhaps 2-3 percent of Virginia’s electricity.
• Solar: While de minimis in Virginia’s energy picture just a few years ago, solar (installations and production) is showing exponential growth in the Commonwealth from rooftops to utility-scale installations. Building on what is already announced,
  • clearly achievable by 2030 …
    • Double utility-scale solar with another 2.5GW (e.g., 5GW total)
    • Distributed production (think on top of large malls, schools, parking lots etc…) in commercial and government sites. 2GW
    • Residential / small business rooftop solar: .5GW
    • These would combine for 5GW of additional solar on top of existing and announced solar plans for a total of approximately 7.5GW install solar which would meet in the ballpark of 10-15 percent of total electricity demand.

Okay, just a few scratches on the back of the envelope and Virginia is ballpark 70 percent carbon-free electricity by 2030 (even while moving fast to ‘electrify everything) with a clear roadmap for 100 percent carbon-free electrons by the mid-2030s and the option, if it makes sense a decade from now, for moving to a renewable-only electricity grid by perhaps the mid-2040s.

Now, the napkin notes planning out above obviously would require legislative and regulatory action to make a reality but the above isn’t heavy lifting in technological nor economic terms. It doesn’t violate any laws of nature (no new elements of the periodic table created), doesn’t assume or rely on emergent energy technology (which, well, will occur), and doesn’t require WWII-like mobilization to make a reality.

As to that last, Virginia actually could do far, far better than the above suggests if we (collectively) rise to climate realities and necessities. With our resources (human capital, financial, natural, industrial), the Commonwealth could make a reality of Virginia being “#1 on climate issues”. With a World War II-like mobilization treating the climate emergency for what it is (an existential threat requiring action that, at the same time, creates tremendous opportunity), Virginia could achieve a 100 percent clean electricity system within the decade even while moving forcefully to ‘electrify everything’.