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That is, the Chinese climate agenda …

Many are reporting that the Chinese represented the most serious stumbling block inhibiting meaningful progress at COP15.  As per David Robert’s excellent discussion of impressions of COP15

if there’s a party to blame, it’s China. It’s China that was off meeting with India and Brazil, trying to avoid getting ensnared in any commitments at all, forcing Obama to track them down. It was China that refused to sign off on the target of 50% global reductions by 2050. It was China that forced rich countries not to commit to 80% reductions by 2050, lest it some day have to live up to that target. (Yes, China forced rich countries to trim their ambitions. “Ridiculous,” said Merkel.) It was China who, up until the very last minute, refused to agree to any international verification at all …

It’s China, in short, that was unwilling to sign onto anything but the most bare-bones framework.

Watching ‘from a distance’, this is a summation of a growing impression re the PRC position in international climate negotiations.

The Independent reported China stands accused of wrecking global deal.

China “systematically wrecked” the Copenhagen climate summit because it feared being presented with a legally binding target to cut the country’s soaring carbon emissions [according to] a senior official from an EU country, present during the negotiations …  accusation … of obstructive Chinese behaviour, reflected widespread anger among many delegations about the nation’s actions at the conference.

The very thoughtful Lou Grinzo concluded

Right before our eyes we have the development of the biggest example one could imagine of the free rider problem. If the other major emitters and potentially high emitters do the right thing and curb their CO2 pollution significantly, it will only make it easier for China to do whatever it wants. The rest of the world will leave more of our global remaining CO2 budget for China, and they will continue using vast amounts of cheap coal, burned in filthy, old-tech plants, to lower their costs so they can continue to be a low-cost producer of many products they export.

Without a doubt, there is truth (and substance) to the above, but let’s take a step back to consider the PRC’s approach from a different angle.

The Chinese Leadership

• doesn’t suffer from rabid anti-science syndrome conditions, thus listens to their technical experts — including their climate scientists
• structure & Chinese cultural heritage able to plan for and structure itself for the very long term
• is growing increasingly convinced that climate change represents a serious threat to their nation
• is increasingly concerned over fossil-fuel (oil and higher-quality coal) import dependencies thus increasingly
• is focusing national investment re clean energy options
• wants to see serious global action re climate change mitigation
• seeking to maximize advantage to PRC through this whole process

Thus, the Chinese are acting to mitigate climate change (their clean energy investments, increasing focus on energy efficiency, etc …) but is seeking to get every possible penny (whether US or Euro pennies) it can get from other nations to gain advantage for the PRC over the long term.

Thus,the Chinese will play every single negotiation to the brink, giving away the absolute minimum they see as necessary, even as they are moving their own nation on a ‘clean energy technology’ path forward.

Thus, perhaps the reality is that the Chinese are negotiating, hard, for every advantage … even while turning their economy on a path toward dominance (victory?) in the clean energy revolution.

What might this suggest for European and US policy?

If the above points are, at their core, correct, the best path might be to set out on a serious ‘arms race’: to arm ourselves (whether looking at this from EU or US perspective) to the greatest advantage with clean energy technology — which includes, of course, not just energy R&D funding, but serious commitments to the deployment of clean energy and energy efficiency throughout the economy.

Right now, China is committing ever more resources to seeking advantage in solar, wind, and other clean energy arenas. If their investments continue without matching (or larger) investments in Europe and the United States, the “Old World” and the “New World” will be beholden to China for key elements of our economies. A question to ask: does that scenario bode well for the future prospects for Old World and/or New World prosperity?

This suggests that future climate change negotiations and the prospects for mitigation of climate change would be best served by serious (crash) programs on both sides of the Atlantic to develop and deploy a broad range of clean energy systems.